[Changleen]

Today oil hit $65 a barrel. In the 70's the oil crisis was brought on by prices hitting (time/inflation adjusted) $75. A few months ago people were shocked when it hit $50, but it's got higher and higher ever since, and doesn't seem to be showing much signs of slowing down. Each time it's had a little mini peak on the way up to it's current level, people have been saying, "Ah, it's only this high because of xxxx doing yyyy" which may be true, but alot of xxxx have been doing a lot of yyyy it seems.

Secondly we have the phenomena of Peak oil, which while people like DRB may argue does not exist, is largely accepted by a good number of geologists and oil industry observers. Whilst on the face of it does not seem Peak oil has anything to do with these current prices, it would appear to be a major factor in oil supply and demand in the coming decades. China and India are going to be wanting a lot of oil fairly soon.

Whilst there is movement in terms of coming up with alternative supply mechanisms, nothing at the moment looks like coming close to bridging the gap.

What should be done about all this? America, as by far the largest consumer of Oil obviously has a huge interest in the eventual outcomes of these processes and events. Should Americans be forced to give up SUVs and the like? What would it take to make you give up your reliance on oil? What do you think will happen? Is this all BS?

 

[dan-o]

I think we should place huge tariffs on Chinese products to restrict their economy, offset their low-ball currency and ensure that we remain the #1 oil market in the world until we figure out a sustainable, alternative fuel that can support our economy long term.

 

[Changleen]

I think we should place huge tariffs on Chinese products to restrict their economy, offset their low-ball currency and ensure that we remain the #1 oil market in the world until we figure out a sustainable, alternative fuel that can support our economy long term.

Isn't that a bit of a zero-sum game? Does America have to suppress others and keep millions below the poverty line whilst it figures out a solution? Secondly by manipulating the market share of oil in your favour, are you not decouraging the swift hunt for a decent alternative source? Market forces and all that...

Also China is increasingly trading with the other growing economies of the region, and suppressing trade between the US and China polarizes the world to some extent, and creates a large anti-US trading block in the far east which might fairly rapidly rise to become a larger economic power than the US.

 

[reflux]

What should be done about all this?

The US should keep invading other countries until we get what we want.

 

[DRB]

Secondly we have the phenomena of Peak oil, which while people like DRB may argue does not exist,

Hey asshole I never said that peak oil doesn't exist. And just for you information it isn't some experts but all experts agree that peak oil is real and that eventually it will be reached. Its when that is going to be reached is where the HUGE disparity of opinion is.

What I said is that refineries not being built, refirbed or closed has nothing to do with it. And in reality what I was specifically talking about was Shell oil and the Bakersfield facility.

 

[DRB]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

 

[Changleen]

Hey asshole I never said that peak oil doesn't exist. And just for you information it isn't some experts but all experts agree that peak oil is real and that eventually it will be reached. Its when that is going to be reached is where the HUGE disparity of opinion is.

What I said is that refineries not being built, refirbed or closed has nothing to do with it. And in reality what I was specifically talking about was Shell oil and the Bakersfield facility.

All right, all right, calm down.

 

[Changleen]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

Interesting. The only thing I'd say about that is the forcasts for demand growth used to predict the peak time are pretty low. As China and India become more industrialised I don't believe any of their suggestions are close to realistic.

 

[DRB]

All right, all right, calm down.

Yeah god forbid reality get in the way of a good post?

 

[Changleen]

Yeah god forbid reality get in the way of a good post?

Ah, Thanks Still, what should we do about it?

 

[DRB]

Interesting. The only thing I'd say about that is the forcasts for demand growth used to predict the peak time are pretty low. As China and India become more industrialised I don't believe any of their suggestions are close to realistic.

You can believe the sun isn't going to come tomorrow but that certainly isn't going to change a thing.

You have absolutely NO experience in oil exploration, production or consumption, ESPECIALLY from a modeling or economic theory perspective. Your lack of experience leaves your ability to question their conclusions severly lacking.

 

[DRB]

Ah, Thanks Still, what should we do about it?

Go jump off a cliff, that should extend peak oil by about 10 mintues. Other than that I'm not all that interested in talking about something I get paid to talk and think about with you.

 

[Westy]

We just need to start taking advantage of other energy resources. Whatever happened to whale oil? It's renewable and whale hunting looks fun. Instead of a gas card parents could just give their kids rocket powered harpoons.

 

[Changleen]

So, 2 nations, both bigger than the US in terms of population by 4x each, becoming industrialised over the next 30 - 40 years, only leading to a maximum of 3% increase in demand for oil? I don't need a career of experience in anything to realise that doesn't add up.

DRB, The current year on year growth in US demand alone is 2%, and China's demand is forcast to grow by 14.5% next year! (source: http://www.energybulletin.net/) How does this add up to a global year on year growth of 3% max?

 

[Reactor]

Isn't that a bit of a zero-sum game? Does America have to suppress others and keep millions below the poverty line whilst it figures out a solution? Secondly by manipulating the market share of oil in your favour, are you not decouraging the swift hunt for a decent alternative source? Market forces and all that...

Also China is increasingly trading with the other growing economies of the region, and suppressing trade between the US and China polarizes the world to some extent, and creates a large anti-US trading block in the far east which might fairly rapidly rise to become a larger economic power than the US.

I think the point is that China is growing so fast because it's artifically lowering it's currency, to create the trade imbalance that fuels it's economy. If the U.S. did the same thing the China is doing we could plunge the world into chaos. What would mean in Oz or NZ if suddenly American products cost two thirds of what locally produced products did?

I don't have a problem with china growing developed, as they develop they will become a market for some American goods, assuming trade is fair. By manipulating their currency they are "stealing" jobs from their "fair trade" partner. They are close to losing "most favored" nation trading status, what is that going to do to their economy?

As for oil, I think we are near the "peak" oil. Unless major finds are made soon, we are going to see production start to drop. Without new refineries we won't be able to process the oil even if we find it.

We have to start looking at conservation and new energy sources. I was reading a story about "Zero energy homes". There are several developments in California that have solor panels on the roofs. During the day, when demand is the highest, they generate power and sell it to the electric company, which sells it to business customers. At night, when demand is lowest, they use grid power. Some of the owners have an electic bill of $7.50 of a six month period. A buck and a quarter a month. The electric company doesn't have to build a new generating plant, so they save money too.

 

[ridetoofast]

its nice to see someone acknowledge the 'fair trade' that china conducts.

the behemoth SUV's sicken me. why the fvck does soccer mom need to pick up kids in a fvcking excursion, and lets not forget all those tahoes, suburbans, and the like sportin' the 20 something inch wheels...yeah lets take a ****ty gas mileage getting vehicle, put heavy ass spinners on it, and make it even worse.

im seriously considering the hybrid thing or a deisel so i can use bio fuel, and my next house is going be quite small.

i can't wait for some leadership in DC to step up and seriously pursue alternative engergies. christ we could grow our own ethanol.

 

[Westy]

We all pretty much know the solution, it just comes down to making the personal sacrifices. Are you willing to drive cars with pussy little engines, take public transportation, live in a less than ideal location to reduce your commute, walk to get groceries a bag at a time, not have 20 electric devices plugged in and running at the same time?

Although living in the Burbs I live very close to work and stores so I don't have to drive much. I could walk or ride to 90% of the places I go but don't for fear of some asshole running me over, I stopped riding a motorcycle that got 50mpg for the same reasons. I am willing to make the sacrifices but find myself in a position where I would have to sacrifice my safety to do so. I would happily pay more taxes for safe bike lanes but 99% of my neihbors would not. That will not happen until fuel prices are crippling and by then the economy will be a mess. Ideally the Gov. could do something about that but being elected officials they would get voted out of a job in no time so it will not happen.

 

[kidwoo]

stuff.

And how brother.

I don't want better highways, I want nice winding bike paths, paved or otherwise to be the primary infrastructure. In winter I actually have had to xc ski to my office before.......it was kind of rad. The easements could serve dual duty.

 

[Silver]

We all pretty much know the solution, it just comes down to making the personal sacrifices. Are you willing to drive cars with pussy little engines, take public transportation, live in a less than ideal location to reduce your commute, walk to get groceries a bag at a time, not have 20 electric devices plugged in and running at the same time?

I'm willing to have the rest of you make those sacrifices...

 

[Changleen]

Are you willing to drive cars with pussy little engines,

A quality Euro auto gets 100Bhp per litre, but very few American engines get close to this. Small doesn't have to mean crap. Also it's about power to weight ratio. I am encouraged by people saying they are thinking about moving to smaller cars.

I recently hired a car, and it turned out to be a Toyota Corolla 1.6. I was initially pissed, but having driven it I was suprised at how perky it was. I'd totally be happy to drive one of these on a permanent basis. I have to admit I currently drive a 2.7L Turbo Diesel Nissan so I suck, but I do actually use it off road and to drive up icy mountains.

In the US I was given a Oldsmobile Cutlass (Yeah, I know) to use whilst I worked in Sedona, and after having first driven it I was like "What's this, like a 1.8, 2.0 litre?" "No, It's a 3.2 V6" WTF? What have you done to make it so slow? Seriously, my 1.0L Euro Ford Fiesta was faster and handled better, and probably weighed about a quarter of the Cutlass. Damn that was **** car.

If engines over 2.0L were banned except for special purposes, and all manufacturers had to adhere to quality guidelines for power output per L, that would be a absolutely massive cut in Oil usage right there. This might also encourage a change in the mindset of 'Make it bigger to get more power' to 'How much power can I squeeze from a tiny source?'. The engineering challenge is just as cool.

 

[stevew]

Should Americans be forced to give up SUVs and the like? What would it take to make you give up your reliance on oil? What do you think will happen? Is this all BS?

How about luxury cars to?

Issue every family a Trabant like vehicle, tell them to ear sh!t and be happy doing it.

Do you ever see a politician in a Geo Metro? Generally it is do as I say, not as I do.

How many people on here who piss and moan about SUV's actually own a hybrid?

 

[Westy]

A quality Euro auto gets 100Bhp per litre, but very few American engines get close to this. Small doesn't have to mean crap. Also it's about power to weight ratio. I am encouraged by people saying they are thinking about moving to smaller cars.

This is another argument but Hp means little, it is where you get the HP. A 1 liter sportbike engine makes as much Hp as most cars do but it would suck in a car because a powerband in the 10,000-15,000rpm range is fairly useless. People want low end torque, which usually means displacement.

 

[Changleen]

How about luxury cars to?

Issue every family a Trabant like vehicle, tell them to ear sh!t and be happy doing it.

Do you ever see a politician in a Geo Metro? Generally it is do as I say, not as I do.

How many people on here who piss and moan about SUV's actually own a hybrid?

It doesn't have to be a Trabant. BMW make some very nice cars with engines of and under 2L. In fact if you browse a few Euro car manufacturer's euro websites, you'll find a great range of very nice cars under 2L.

I agree though, changing people's perceptions about this, especially when the smallest car they've ever driven is a 2.5L and they consider that 'small' is going to be very hard.

FYI Fiat make a Cinquicento - a '500' - 0.5L which sells quite well in large urban areas in Europe.

 

[Westy]

It doesn't have to be a Trabant. BMW make some very nice cars with engines of and under 2L. In fact if you browse a few Euro car manufacturer's euro websites, you'll find a great range of very nice cars under 2L.

I agree though, changing people's perceptions about this, especially when the smallest car they've ever driven is a 2.5L and they consider that 'small' is going to be very hard.

FYI Fiat make a Cinquicento - a '500' - 0.5L which sells quite well in large urban areas in Europe.

I got rear ended by a big Fiat, the Mille, in Sao Paolo. I was in a VW wagon, similar to the Jetta wagon. We suffered little damage but the Fiat was a complete mess, I was suprised that anyone walked out alive.

That brings up one problem with small cars in the US with so many large vehicles on the road, like semis, micro autos are just plain dangerous.

 

[Changleen]

I got rear ended by a big Fiat, the Mille, in Sao Paolo. I was in a VW wagon, similar to the Jetta wagon. We suffered little damage but the Fiat was a complete mess, I was suprised that anyone walked out alive.

That brings up one problem with small cars in the US with so many large vehicles on the road, like semis, micro autos are just plain dangerous.

Aye, that is an issue. It is possible to design a safe small car, (see the new BMW 100 series) and in europe there are stricter and stricter safety regulations which arfe driving up the 'average' safety as time goes by.

 

[Spunger]

I love my girlfriends honda civic. It's peppy, moves great, good gas mileage. My truck on the other hand is a beast but it's beefy. It sucks though that I can fill her gas tank up 2 times with the size of mine

I think euro cars don't have all the emissions equipment that U.S cars have to have on them, that is what steals loads of horsepower. Restrictive intakes/exhaust, emission controls up the wazoo etc....just dumps on performance.

I love the little look of most euro cars. Hell our speed limit is 65, some spots 70 but as long as it goes the speed limit, and you can carry what you need I don't see too much of a need for a giant beefy sports car or pickup or kid hauler (tahoe/excursion etc...). People buy SUV's to feel safe in, but when everyone and their mother has a SUV or a full size pickup you aren't really all that safe.

 

[ioscope]

I agree that we should have trade tarriffs against china, all we ever buy from them is pre-packaged garbage.

 

[rooftest]

How many people on here who piss and moan about SUV's actually own a hybrid?

I saw a few people bitching and moaning about how much it costs to fill their 25-gallon tank - only SUVs have tanks that big.

 

[DH Diva]

What am I doing about the gas prices?? Well, I just got a raise and spent my monthly increase buying a more fuel efficient car. I just got a VW Passat TDI that gets 46 MPG. What I'm saving on gas because of the good MPG is making the payment seem like a lot less.

And, with regards to the big gas tank comment, not all small cars have small tanks. My passat has an 18.5 gallon tank! It takes forever to fill!

 

[Spunger]

What am I doing about the gas prices?? Well, I just got a raise and spent my monthly increase buying a more fuel efficient car. I just got a VW Passat TDI that gets 46 MPG. What I'm saving on gas because of the good MPG is making the payment seem like a lot less.

And, with regards to the big gas tank comment, not all small cars have small tanks. My passat has an 18.5 gallon tank! It takes forever to fill!

Now you can run your car with cooking oil......hehe......

18.5 jesus that's alot, my full size pickup has a 22 gallon, girlfriends civic has a 14 from empty.

I'm hoping to possibly ditch my truck in favor of a scooter for around town and such or a more "practical" car then a big single cab lifted pickup I like the idea of a scooter though around town, Santa Barbara is so tiny it'd be fun!

 

[Changleen]

I think euro cars don't have all the emissions equipment that U.S cars have to have on them, that is what steals loads of horsepower. Restrictive intakes/exhaust, emission controls up the wazoo etc....just dumps on performance.

Euro emmisions standards are very tight actually, and tested yearly on every car. California will have the tightest regs in 2007 I think it is, but the only thing I know of thats tighter in the US over the UK is the maximum air intake for some reason. TVR had a big problem with a bunch of it's cars being imported into the US, they were all too big. The car in the film 'Swordfish' had to be restricted for use in the US. However that's exactly the sort of car we need to use far less! I think I remember reading that the Maclaran F1 had issues in the US market too as it came stock from the factory.

 

[NRSracer]

www.e85fuel.com

 

[Changleen]

Ethanol looks pretty good on paper. You might need to farm Africa to get enough for the world though.

 

[ohio]

Ethanol looks pretty good on paper. You might need to farm Africa to get enough for the world though.

Imagine what that could do for the economies of African nations...


Actually, an old prof of mine has a start-up that has been refining a yeast that converts biomass to ethanol. That is, you no longer would need corn, nor massive refineries to produce ethanol... you could use lawn clippings, post harvest soy stalks, autumn leaves, etc. and the refining/filtration would be at a relatively low cost facility, anywhere in the world.

I'm not sure how far off they are, but I would think 5-10 years, or they wouldn't have recieved the VC funding.

edit - to be clear, this will NOT solve the world's energy problems. But it will supplement oil dependancy, improve the carbon cycle, and make low cost fuels cleaner and more available in developing areas.

 

[NRSracer]

I'm not sure how far off they are, but I would think 5-10 years, or they wouldn't have recieved the VC funding.

actually, some estimates put hydrogen only about 5 years away, of course not everybody can afford the fuel or a new car, but it will probably be availible a lot sooner than most think. check out www.fueleconomy.gov one of the best sites to learn about hydrogen (biased, granted, but still a lot of good facts in there). E85 refined from corn is already on the market now, mostly in the mid-west (think where corn comes from), but a standard car is not able to run on it legally yet because of emissions (emits some type of harmful nitrogen combo, not sure exactly, but it's worse than CO). There are cars called FFV's (flexible fuel vehicles) that are already availible and can run on any combination of up to 85% ethanol (straight E85). Most of these cars are either the Ford Taurus or the Dodge Caravan, although lately a lot more compatible care have become availible, there's a whole list availible on e85fuel.com.
One of these two new fuels needs to be introduced to the world in the next 15 years or we'll simply run out of petroleum, and that estimate doesn't even include China's newfound love for oil (source: http://www.biotour.org/fossilfuels.html). That said, prices of petroleum are pretty much only going to rise from this point on.

 

[NRSracer]

Ethanol looks pretty good on paper. You might need to farm Africa to get enough for the world though.

Didn't say it was perfect

 

[ridetoofast]

aside from the obvious ecological/evironmental benefits, the best part about kicking the oil habbit would be to be able to tell OPEC to stuff it

 

[ohio]

actually, some estimates put hydrogen only about 5 years away

Those are very bad estimates. Or they are for onboard reformers for fuel cells, so that the fuel cell is running on ethanol.

There is no way we will see a viable hydrogen infrastructure built and operational within 5 years. No way. Which is exactly why Bush can throw the idea out there like a big warm hug that makes people not worry about the rate they're consuming petroleum products.

 

[Changleen]

Didn't say it was perfect

On the contrary, as Ohio said, it could be the very thing to remedy Africa's woes.

 

[NRSracer]

On the contrary, as Ohio said, it could be the very thing to remedy Africa's woes.

that's a bit idealistic, but who knows? it could bring some of those countries out of poverty. What would also be ideal is if cars could drive on 100% ethanol. not sure if its realistically possible, but that would solve about every issue except pollution (but it'd be a lot better than gas/diesel) plus the octane would be off the charts (E85 gets 105 octane) so no more different grades of fuel. personally, i hope we can convert to pure alcohol. it would probably be pretty cheap to make a conversion kit for combustion driven cars. hydrogen still seems like it's the hippies talking. it's almost like they're making hydrogen cars just because they can. it seems to me that if we can make alcohol a practical fuel, and save each american thousands by offering a conversion kit, it eliminates the need for hydrogen in the near future.