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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Those happened, too:





One month old infants aren't fond of looking at the camera or not flopping around.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Second quote of sorts is from SolarCity.

Baseline is free-to-us 2.6 kW. This is a 20 year lease prepaid by the builder.

Option 1 will be 20 modules @ 260 w = 5.2kw system for $ 6,890.00 prepaid lease option price.
Option 2 will be 30 modules @ 260 w = 7.8kw system for $ 13,780.00 prepaid lease option price.

Using published figures these systems should make 4940, 9880, and 14400 kWh per year in Denver, respectively. Let's consider the 5.2 kW upgrade (option 2) relative to baseline as a standalone unit since they're clearly pricing it per 10 module block.

That's $13,780 for 9880 * 20 kWh over its life. Looking at it from that perspective that's like paying for electricity at 7 cents/kWh, which is lower than I currently pay. Net price, when figured this way, would be $13,780 - 9880 kWh / yr * 20 years * 13.6 cents/kWh from Xcel, so a savings of $13,094 over 20 years as compared to baseline. So it's not bad if one ignores other options.

Comparison is the $17,000 quote for a owned 5 kW system, net price $11,900 after Federal tax credit. Xcel pays 2 cents/kWh generation credit, so net savings per year would be 9500 kWh * 15.6 cents/kWh, or $1,482. After 20 years I'd be in the black $17,740. The difference is that after that point the SolarCity system reverts to their ownership, so I derive no more benefit. With an owned system it'd keep on saving me money: at 30 years we'd be at $32,560, and at 40 years (far estimate of panels' life expectancy) we'd be at $47,380.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
This math also handily answers the question of "why bother with solar given that one can buy clean power via wind renewable energy credits from my local utility company?"

The answer would be because I can both save a substantial chunk of money and totally insulate myself against future energy price volatility. Win.
 

Westy

the teste
Nov 22, 2002
54,430
20,225
Sleazattle
1) Solar quotes are trickling in. $3.40/installed Watt for a 5 kW system as the first quote. This is better than I expected. :)

2) Rigs for some alternate universe where I have tons of free time yet still have money to burn:

http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/the-crazy-camping-rigs-at-americas-richest-off-road-adv-1705279152



Mmm. Mitsubishi Fuso Canter 4x4 goodness.



Saw this parked at Mt St Helens. They were driving around the world. Privvy was leaking and smelled bad, otherwise it was pretty bad ass..
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
That living module looks like it has shipping container interlock receptacles, for lack of a better term. :thumb:

I'm a bit uncertain on how it'd help the whole unit get from continent to continent given that the truck looks too tall for a container.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
More basic arithmetic time. Backstory is that I asked for a heat pump quote on the new house and they came back with $19,000 for an 18 SEER unit. Context for that number:

AC only prices:
- 13 SEER (minimum that one can sell these days) at $3,910
- 16 SEER at $5,560
- 21 SEER at $6,540

I'm going to use the operating hour assumptions from this article. It's from Florida, but my wife likes to be cool so we may well end up operating it for 2500 hours per year as assumed. :D

The comparison would be heating with natural gas, assuming a 92% efficient furnace. I'll further assume our bigger, more insulated house will use the same energy to heat as our current, small 2x4"-walled rental. Over this past winter we averaged right around or below 100 therms of gas usage per month here.

My electricity price last month was 13.8 cents/kWh as in above posts. My natural gas price last month was 85.8 cents/therm.

Scenario 1: Heat pump

Up front cost: $19k.

Gas heating cost: $0, easy.

Electric heating cost: 100 therms used to heat means about 92 * 100,000 BTU of heat was pumped in per month (Nov-April). I'm assuming a 3 ton system per the Florida article, so 36,000 BTUs. This implies running it 256 hours over the winter months for heating. At 18 SEER that works out to $70.50 per month (36000/(18*1000) * (92*100000/36000) * 0.138), or about $420 for the season.

AC cost: 36000/(18*1000)*2500*0.138, or $690 per summer.

Total yearly electricity cost if bought from utility company: $1,110.

Scenario 2: 13 SEER AC

Up front cost: $3,910.

Gas heating cost: 100 therms * 6 months * $0.858/therm == $515 per winter.

AC cost: 36000/(13*1000)*2500*0.138, or $955 per summer.

Total yearly energy cost: $1,470.

Scenario 3: 16 SEER AC

Up front cost: $5,560.

Gas heating cost: as above.

AC cost: 36000/(16*1000)*2500*0.138, or $776 per summer.

Total yearly energy cost: $1,291.

Scenario 4: 21 SEER AC

Up front cost: $6,540.

Gas heating cost: as above.

AC cost: 36000/(21*1000)*2500*0.138, or $591 per summer.

Total yearly energy cost: $1,106.



Now to sort the options:

Baseline will be 13 SEER AC.

16 SEER AC would take 9.2 years before the initial cost was recouped: (5560-3910)/(1470-1291).

21 SEER AC would take 7.2 years before the initial cost was recouped: (6540-3910)/(1470-1106).

Heat pump would take 42 years before the initial cost was recouped: (19000-3910)/(1470-1110).


Yeah, I don't think I'll be springing for that heat pump, natural gas aversion aside…
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Comparison is the $17,000 quote for a owned 5 kW system
Other quotes, including more precision on the above (for the better! more power and less cost than on the initial rough quote:

Solar Power Pros, who work with Eco Roof & Solar here in town: 5.04 kW system installed for $16,553. $3.28/installed Watt.

Namaste Solar: 7.32 kW for $26,377. $3.60/installed Watt.

Ecomark Solar: 2.65 kW system for $14,444. $5.45/installed Watt.
After I called them out on this they then offered to beat any other quotes by 5%.

Vivax Pros Solar: 7.84 kW for $29,008. $3.70/installed Watt.

Photon Brothers: 5 kW for $18,750. $3.75/installed Watt.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
I had the end of lease inspection for the LEAF today. $0 chargeable damage.

:banana:

(A few tiny dings and scrapes were normal wear and tear, as was scuffed interior plastics from carting around strollers and the like.)

Total cost of ownership ex insurance has been the lease payments, a few cents per mile for electrons, and nothing more.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Low voltage subcontractor meeting today. Came out of it relatively unscathed, thanks to the house build package already being pretty generous to start.

Extras sprung for:

- two speakers in the ceiling, above the kitchen island, wiring to terminate downstairs in the finished basement
- coax run from equipment room in basement (with a switch that all coax and cat 5e will terminate at) up to the attic, where I'll install our powered TV antenna

Included stuff is mildly exciting, such as two coax and two RJ45 plugs in most rooms. More exciting from my perspective is having speaker wire run in the walls in the basement for a 5.1 setup.

I could have checked the box to have them embed speakers but I want to pick 'em myself. Nothing extravagant but not low end this time around: separate components, nothing all in one box, and the receiver has to be able to drive two zones simultaneously and be controllable via iPhone.

Polk speakers? Hmm.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
I could have checked the box to have them embed speakers but I want to pick 'em myself. Nothing extravagant but not low end this time around: separate components, nothing all in one box, and the receiver has to be able to drive two zones simultaneously and be controllable via iPhone.

Polk speakers? Hmm.
A followup on the above, cross-posted from Google+ since that's what I do:

I've now started down the rabbit hole of AV gear hunting.

Background:

- basement will be where the only TV in the house will live, per plan
- walls will be pre-wired for a 5.1 setup for cleanliness although I may well have to use these wires to fish longer/thicker cables through ultimately
- no use for 7.1, 9.1, 11.1 in a small room
- kitchen upstairs will have two speakers embedded in the ceiling
- must have 4k 4:4:4/60 fps capability in the receiver to futureproof it, as I'm planning on 4k for the TV certainly
- this will not happen sooner than about a year from now
- I happen to actually have a good set of ears as a musician, plus am susceptible as any other schmoe to the placebo effect: I realize this is as much an ego-stroking affair as a legitimate sound reproduction affair

Given all this a 7.1 (7.2 these days) receiver seems the sound choice. It'd drive the downstairs setup off of its 5.1 capability, and the second zone/kitchen speakers via the unused channels 6 and 7.

As far as speakers, on the other hand, there are as many vendors vying for consumer dollars as ever, and an even greater abundance of erstwhile audiophiles who whore themselves out review gear very positively in return for keeping the spice flowing. (In that manner it's kind of like the car review game, eh?)

Anyway, as a starting point I came up with this, noting that the kitchen speakers are Klipsch something or other and aren't too fidelity-critical:

- Yamaha RX-V679 AV receiver <-- proxy for now as it can't stream non-existent 4k content natively
- SVS Prime Tower 5.0 setup (with their satellites as surround speakers, probably up on speaker stands rather than screwed into the wall)
- SVS SB-2000 subwoofer to round out that missing 0.1
- TBD 70"+ 4k, 4:4:4-capable TV with whatever hits the sweet spot on the market this time next year

Other things that'd be needed would be a 4k source (probably streaming Netflix and Amazon to this hypothetical future AV receiver--no current products can stream this non-existent stream yet--along with an Ultra HD Blu-Ray player, similarly hypothetical at this point) and cabling help. Monoprice comes to the rescue for this latter point. I now know of banana plugs, and they + some 12 ga copper + some wall plates with banana plugs on both sides ("coupler plates") seem to be the way to go.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
I did a more rigorous calculation regarding the price of electricity from a solar setup using my specifics for the future house:

Below is the summary of my calculation of the "lifetime" cost per kWh generated for a proposed solar system on my roof in Denver. This accounts for the orientation and pitch of my roof, discount rate on the cash purchase made initially, the Federal tax credit, the expected/warranted degradation rate on the panels, and the inexorable rise in utility electricity's cost.

Cliffs Notes: The electricity pays for the panels' cost even accounting for the time value of money under my assumptions. If you live in a place like California with more expensive baseline power and time of use pricing then it works out even more in your favor.

Check my work here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mXujayixBHo7rRb3REn44hMap0Du3mDC-2ylCa_Pq4U/edit?usp=sharing



What does this mean? The electricity pays for the panels' cost even accounting for the time value of money and when not accounting for the time value of the offset utility payments. I did a further calculation for that, and the sum of the future values (at year 30) of each year's offset utility payments is $115,286.

By that metric, solar is effectively a 7.5% investment over 30 years. Not bad at all, given that this is a constant 7.5% each year. The real market has ups and downs which manifest themselves as order of returns risk, so the equivalent "real market" yield would be higher yet.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
One more step towards 2.2 kids and white picket fence life:

I just bought a Simplisafe Classic home security system. The rental house has ADT keypads (and possibly sensors) but I'm betting ADT would bend me over in fees, especially since we may be in here in this rental house 9 more months, possibly 21, but certainly not 36+.

Impetus was break ins last month and yesterday at three houses within a block.
Said Simplisafe system has proved to be less than reliable. Witness:

- about half the time it can't connect (via wireless: first AT&T, now Verizon module) to the dispatch center
- smoke detector decided that it would alarm all the time in the absence of smoke about a month ago
- as of a few days ago arming it causes the siren to blare at half-volume immediately

Time to get on the horn to them so that they can send me some working parts post-haste.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Simplisafe resolution: new batteries in siren and warranty replacements for dead keychain fob + malfunctioning smoke detector seems to have resolved things. I'm still not a huge fan of the system, although it certainly has come with less usurious terms than ADT. That's a low bar to clear.

In other news, CenturyLink just confirmed that my (still pending construction) new house is in a 1 Gbps service area.

Score. 4k streaming content, here we come! (I predict the first widely available content will be porn, of course.)

This Internet connection speed will prompt an internal round of upgrades to 802.11ac-capable devices in due course. As it stands, my iPhone 5S does only 802.11n as does my half-ancient budget router, and my work-issued laptop does 802.11a/g/n 2x2, whatever that means.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Baby Yuna turned 2 months old yesterday. Since the white sheet + white onesie + white bear photos were disappointing last time we ventured outside:




Babies don't pose well at this age.


Big sister holding little sister.


The 135/2L remains my favorite lens.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727


We apparently have a foundation now. We drove by the lot randomly, as opposed to having been informed of this by the builders. I'm hiring an inspector for foundation, pre-drywall, and pre-walkthrough stages so knowing this happened is actually important.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Two papers of mine got accepted this week. That's 12 peer reviewed publications thus far by my count, plus one non-peer reviewed one. I need at least 20 for (mandatory up or out) promotion in the next 5-6 years max.

I have at least 6 I plan on getting published this year so I think I'll make it in time. :D
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Father-daughter trip today:



Lunch at The Buff. Long lines. Good food, good price. Crowd seemed much more 18-22 bro-tastic/barbie-tastic than I was expecting. I'm old.

Panorama from Switzerland Trail:

 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727


Next weekend's planned drive. It's a boring shot across town on I-70 to get to Golden, to do the Lariat Loop (Golden to Bergen Park via Lookout Mountain Road, Evergreen, Morrison, back up towards Golden). It's a Scenic Byway so I figure I might as well give it a go since Mount Evans Road still remains closed even in mid-July!

80 miles with climbing--although we could probably eke it out in the RAV4 EV with extended charge mode, no sense in not taking the Land Cruiser. The Land Cruiser won't have its off-road chops challenged on this entirely paved route but it won't have the possible side effect of running out of juice with wife + two daughters in tow.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Matlab stuff for Westy:

Today I made a breakthrough in my long-running MR angiography project. I'd had the MTF curve part working for a while. I needed metrics as well as a "real life" analogue for these metrics. Here's that real life example, using a simple simulated vessel stenosis:





The point is that one looks fuzzier than the other. That's the point because the whole exercise of MTF is to provide numbers to back up that intuition.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
I'm building a house, as one may have gathered from this thread. I asked when closing might be, and got this in response:

I can't provide that information until released by our closing coordinator. [You] will be contacted with that date as soon as it is released. Our Superintendent, [redacted] has kept the construction of the house moving forward and is on schedule with his projected target timeframe of closing. This is the extent of information that I can share with you.
:lol: Useless. In other words, "it's on pace with our schedule, but our schedule is secret kthxbye"


Update: Spoke with the local builder sales guy (senior to the salesperson who emailed the noncommittal statement above) and he confirmed my suspicion that December is the working plan.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
White Coat Investor had a good post on how to compute equivalent pay for W-2 employees vs. 1099 contractors:

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/w2-vs-self-employed/

I did that arithmetic and added in what I could figure, namely bonus, match, health/dental insurance subsidy, free long term disability insurance, cheap life insurance (to a cap), free malpractice insurance (! this is a big one for me), CME/travel money, and the difference in Social Security and Medicare tax treatment. Whew.

When all is said and done, I'd have to be paid just shy of 50% more as a 1099 contractor to get equivalent value as my W-2 position. The difference might even be a bit bigger, as I have more (!) tax-deferred space (401(a), 403(b), 457(b)) than self-employed, but that difference is difficult to compute directly.

This isn't to say that I couldn't get more pay as a W-2 employee out in the private practice world. Rather, it illustrates that benefits inclusive of cheap/free insurance can significantly increase the value of a W-2 position, which is important when comparing compensation with published figures or other offers.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Matlab stuff for Westy:

Today I made a breakthrough in my long-running MR angiography project. I'd had the MTF curve part working for a while. I needed metrics as well as a "real life" analogue for these metrics. Here's that real life example, using a simple simulated vessel stenosis:





The point is that one looks fuzzier than the other. That's the point because the whole exercise of MTF is to provide numbers to back up that intuition.
Oof. So I put some more hours into this project today. 80 minute Skype call with my co-authors, more code tweaking as I'd made a normalization error, and then set the whole thing to run its thousands of combinations of parameters over the weekend.

Each paper I publish is worth roughly $1000/year x the rest of my career--pretty sure I've shared that rule of thumb before. (This is because I need at least 20 publications to get promoted, and each academic rank up carries a $25k/yr pay bump.) This current MR angiography paper has been a solid 24 months in the making all said and done, with hundreds of hours invested.

The good news is that this above subjective result + some final tweaking will get this paper accepted with high certainty, and then I can move on and concentrate on the other half dozen projects in various states of completion that I hope to also publish this year.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
Due to an email domain snafu I didn't get on the close parking garage wait list until 9 months after I started my current job. I probably won't get a spot there for another year yet. Meanwhile, my new house will be done probably around December, to the best of my knowledge, and that'll take my commute from 2.5 miles to about 6.5 miles.

I'll be driving most days in the winter, no doubt. Come spring 2016 it'll be time to either follow through with my threatened plans to build another e-bike (fat-e-bike?) or perhaps snag something like this, as the motorcycle/scooter parking is as convenient as the bike parking:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/07/18/genze-2-0-electric-scooter/
http://www.genze.com/model/genze-2-0/



$3k. Made by Mahindra, as in the big Indian car company, assembled in Michigan, probably for some weird local tax credit. 30 mph limited speed. 1.6 kWh of lithium. Regenerative braking, so presumably a hub motor in that tiny 12" rear wheel.

This photo appears to confirm that suspicion:



It'd represent a capitulation in that pedaling is not part of the equation at all... but it would be pretty cheap (on par with building an e-bike, only with a warranty), would get me to work on surface streets, and would solve that parking issue x 1 year quite handily. I'm not sure it'd be much use for anything else, though. Perhaps sucking it up and parking the Land Cruiser in the far garage is a better idea.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
For a probably 2 kW moped that has a warranty that's not a bad price. I could certainly order something off aliexpress for less but that'd be of very shady quality, design, and would have no support.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727


As posted in the Sunday thread, I tore a hole in the sidewall of my left front Nokian while descending from Argentine Pass today. Thankfully I had all the proper locking stuffs for both the spare tire (!) and the lug nuts as well as a full size spare and a tool kit replete with bottle jack. (This tool kit lives in its own dedicated compartment in the cargo area. The jumper cables live in their own dedicated compartment on the other side. Bravo, Toyota engineers.)

Anyway, this tire is no doubt toast. The wheel may well be toast as well, as I had to ride it for a few hundred galling feet until I found a segment of trail flat enough to safely jack up the beast.

I've been running the Nokian Hakkapeliittas even in the summer, so it was one of those that I tore. This is good in a sense, in that they're new enough that I should be able to swap a new one in without any circumference issues. This was a sign that going on real trails with these tires is probably not a good idea. I'm not so hot on the tires that came on the vehicle, either,

Plan, noting that I'd rather not spend a lot of money on anything prior to closing on the house (December?!):

- sell the all-season Michelins that are just hanging out the side stoop on Craigslist
- check if wheel is salvageable, replace with something as cheap as possible if it needs replacing (it'll be under the car as the spare anyway)
- replace Nokian with another, identical one, and continue running Nokians all summer
- no more vigorous off-road trails this summer, as there are many paved routes that I haven't explored yet (Mt Adams auto road, which is still not open (!), various scenic byways, Rocky Mountain National Park's two main roads)
(- close on house)
- OEM takeoffs, Tundra takeoffs, or other cheap wheels x 4 with a second set of TPMS sensors in the late spring
- "real" tires for that second set of wheels: Hankook all-terrains? something with a sidewall that won't fail in the backcountry


Update: No new wheel needed! I ordered up another replacement Nokian, and when it comes in next week then the spare on its own wheel will be relegated back to under the back of the Land Cruiser.

Although it's hot as balls currently it's going to be cold season soon enough, and then these Nokians won't seem so silly.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
My house now has framing!



In mid August we go to the design center and pick floors, cabinets, counters, etc./all that crap.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
We have a second floor framed now, apparently. Shit moves quickly!

In other news, no one wants to buy my tires, apparently.

In other other news, I made $150 in exchange for being in a Walmart physically for half an hour. I'll do it, but not for less. Such a big, depressing place. People in front of me were buying school supplies for apparently a couple of kids, and they had everything they needed (three ring binders, etc.) written out in a childish hand on ruled paper, with how much each thing cost next to it.
 
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Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,288
7,727
I could rock this on the way to work. I think those are electric hub motors that I spy:

 

dump

Turbo Monkey
Oct 12, 2001
8,217
4,468
Two papers of mine got accepted this week. That's a count of 12 peer reviewed publications thus far by my count, plus one non-peer reviewed one. I need at least 20 for (mandatory up or put) promotion in the next 5-6 years max.

I have at least 6 I plan on getting published this year so I think I'll make it in time. :D
Congrats! Seems like you're on a good trajectory. :)