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The futility of the Prius and the end of the world as we know it

manimal

Ociffer Tackleberry
Feb 27, 2002
7,212
17
Blindly running into cactus
hope you have smelting and forging capabilities for when you run out. not to mention a ready source of viable black powder.

have your children evolved enough to sustain themselves on brass?
my barrel would melt before i ran out and my kids can sustain themselves off the meat of the losers in the thunderdome. survival is survival, those with food and no protection will lose the food.

who run bartertown? :D
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,942
24,512
media blackout
survival is survival, those with food and no protection will lose the food.
your fault is assuming that this group will exist; at least in large enough numbers to be anything more than a short term option.

if they have the foresight to stockpile food, then more than likely they also have the foresight to arrange adequate protection from the roaming hordes
 

Whoops

Turbo Monkey
Jul 9, 2006
1,011
0
New Zealand
Recommended reading; The Road by Cormack McCarthy (or the film).

Guns and stockpiles of food are all good, but what will you do if one of your kids gets sick? Know how to remove a septic appendix? A rotten tooth?

Lone survivalists will last a few months at most. Strong resilient communities is where you want to be.
 

DirtMcGirk

<b>WAY</b> Dumber than N8 (to the power of ten alm
Feb 21, 2008
6,379
1
Oz
R.E.M. was right

That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane -
Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn -
world serves its own needs, regardless of your own needs. Feed it up a knock,
speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,
down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies
breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered
crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,
common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its
own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
light, feeling pretty psyched.

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
Recommended reading; The Road by Cormack McCarthy (or the film).

Guns and stockpiles of food are all good, but what will you do if one of your kids gets sick? Know how to remove a septic appendix? A rotten tooth?

Lone survivalists will last a few months at most. Strong resilient communities is where you want to be.
I'm not sure you'd have the prettiest right lower quadrant scar afterwards but I'd definitely be able to diagnose and would probably be able to take out said appendix without killing someone in a Mad Max type situation. :eek: Plus, if hospitals and infrastructure still exists then, well, I'd be there working already and my buddies over in surgery would take it out properly.

I used to think that being able to fly a helicopter would be a great post-apocalyptic skill. Now that I think of it, that's pretty silly given how much petroleum is needed to keep such a bird in the air. Better to be able to do useful things on the ground, like put the lotion in the basket. Oh, wait… :think:
 

manimal

Ociffer Tackleberry
Feb 27, 2002
7,212
17
Blindly running into cactus
Strong resilient communities is where you want to be.
and strong resilient communities will require people with certain specialties that can benefit the survival of the community: doctors, farmers, mechanics, and those trained in the protective arts. also, these strong resilient communities won't pop up overnight, you'll have to survive for a while to be a part of one.

around here, people kill each other over a bag of chips...imagine when it's a lot more serious and it's not just the underclass losing their minds. someone will be responsible to keep the wolves at bay while we figure out how to continue our society in a more responsible manner.
 

jonKranked

Detective Dookie
Nov 10, 2005
85,942
24,512
media blackout
and strong resilient communities will require people with certain specialties that can benefit the survival of the community: doctors, farmers, mechanics, and those trained in the protective arts. also, these strong resilient communities won't pop up overnight, you'll have to survive for a while to be a part of one.

around here, people kill each other over a bag of chips...imagine when it's a lot more serious and it's not just the underclass losing their minds. someone will be responsible to keep the wolves at bay while we figure out how to continue our society in a more responsible manner.
won't be this guy:

 

Whoops

Turbo Monkey
Jul 9, 2006
1,011
0
New Zealand
Anesthetic? Infection control? You might get the appendix out, but would they live past day 3?

Shag your partner and she get's pregnant... know how to deal with complications there?

Life gets very brutal, very quickly.

The 'star-trek' future (i.e. not decent or this 'power down' rubbish) is the only one I want.... the question is; have we used up the resources (on McDonald's and DH mtbs) we need to achieve such a future AND/OR having taken certain irreversible steps, cut off paths to that future?
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
Anesthetic? Infection control? You might get the appendix out, but would they live past day 3?

Shag your partner and she get's pregnant... know how to deal with complications there?

Life gets very brutal, very quickly.
Uh, actually I do know, thank you very much. Finding supplies might be difficult and some Civil War-era substitutions might have to be made, of course: a shot of whiskey and a piece of wood to bite down upon before amputation, anyone? :eek:
 

Whoops

Turbo Monkey
Jul 9, 2006
1,011
0
New Zealand
and strong resilient communities will require people with certain specialties that can benefit the survival of the community: doctors, farmers, mechanics, and those trained in the protective arts. also, these strong resilient communities won't pop up overnight, you'll have to survive for a while to be a part of one.

around here, people kill each other over a bag of chips...imagine when it's a lot more serious and it's not just the underclass losing their minds. someone will be responsible to keep the wolves at bay while we figure out how to continue our society in a more responsible manner.
They won't pop up at all until feudal strong man structures (GUNS!) emerge after a while... and then the slow process begins again (but without the easy access to oil - all gone - we'll be stuck with c18th tech at best).

Better to have built strong communities BEFORE the **** hits the fan... but how to form and how to maintain... lot's of communes set up in the 70's for this reason.. waiting... waiting... waiting... ah screw it let's go to Vegas.

There's more and more reports of big $ individuals setting up 'safe residences' here in NZ...
 

Whoops

Turbo Monkey
Jul 9, 2006
1,011
0
New Zealand
Uh, actually I do know, thank you very much. Finding supplies might be difficult and some Civil War-era substitutions might have to be made, of course: a shot of whiskey and a piece of wood to bite down upon before amputation, anyone? :eek:
You know how to perform a C-section from which the mother can recover?

My hat is off to you sir.
 

DirtMcGirk

<b>WAY</b> Dumber than N8 (to the power of ten alm
Feb 21, 2008
6,379
1
Oz
I suppose I am the quintessential American fat slob when I look at this. The reality is that a lot of people can't or won't survive this change. When I was in NO for Katrina, the one thing I know to be absolutely true is that after 3 days without TV and fast food, Americans become downright unfriendly.

This will end in looting.
This will end in pillaging.
This will end in rape.
This will end in chaos and anarchy.

But most of all, this will end.

So why get all worked up about surviving it? If someone were to let's say start playing "global thermonuclear war" tomorrow, I am not going to go underground into my bunker, hoping that maybe I survive the opening volley of blasts of ultra megaton weapons, then I get to hang out in there until a) the radiation dissipates, b) I run out of food or fuel, c) someone gets sick and I don't have the skill or materials to deal with it, or d) I get a hankering for the last Whopper on Earth.

If and when the time comes that we run out of fossil juice, I am pretty sure that the end all be all war to end all wars is coming like a bad Britney Spears movie right there after.

I'm going to go stand on my front porch with my TV remote, my woman and a beer, trying to make the mushroom cloud change colors with the remote until the blast wave hits us and turns us to ash all Terminator 2 style.
 

Whoops

Turbo Monkey
Jul 9, 2006
1,011
0
New Zealand
I suppose I am the quintessential American fat slob when I look at this. The reality is that a lot of people can't or won't survive this change. When I was in NO for Katrina, the one thing I know to be absolutely true is that after 3 days without TV and fast food, Americans become downright unfriendly.

This will end in looting.
This will end in pillaging.
This will end in rape.
This will end in chaos and anarchy.

But most of all, this will end.

So why get all worked up about surviving it? If someone were to let's say start playing "global thermonuclear war" tomorrow, I am not going to go underground into my bunker, hoping that maybe I survive the opening volley of blasts of ultra megaton weapons, then I get to hang out in there until a) the radiation dissipates, b) I run out of food or fuel, c) someone gets sick and I don't have the skill or materials to deal with it, or d) I get a hankering for the last Whopper on Earth.

If and when the time comes that we run out of fossil juice, I am pretty sure that the end all be all war to end all wars is coming like a bad Britney Spears movie right there after.

I'm going to go stand on my front porch with my TV remote, my woman and a beer, trying to make the mushroom cloud change colors with the remote until the blast wave hits us and turns us to ash all Terminator 2 style.
I wouldn't limit that to Americans... most of Western (and Eastern for that matter) civilization is commonly noted as being 2 meals away from anarchy.


Love the porch visuals. Would make a great scene in a movie...



(Recommended gaming; Fallout 1, 2, or at a push, 3. But NOT FalloutTactics..)
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
You know how to perform a C-section from which the mother can recover?

My hat is off to you sir.
I'm not saying I should be doing it if there's any other alternative, but back in the day people could and did do whatever the hell they wanted once they waltzed out the door of med school with an MD plaque in hand. I'm the better part of 3 years past that point.*

Oh, and I can shoot a gun, too, as can any and all Joe Schmoes lining up to be allowed to enter the compound in our hypothetical scenario. Pick me, pick me! I'll be sheriff and doctor. :weee:

* of course, only one of those post-grad years, my surgery year, is relevant. Radiology hasn't sharpened my uterus-sewing skills :rofl: although I do suture and tie somewhat regularly when on the interventional service.
 

Whoops

Turbo Monkey
Jul 9, 2006
1,011
0
New Zealand
I'm not saying I should be doing it if there's any other alternative, but back in the day people could and did do whatever the hell they wanted once they waltzed out the door of med school with an MD plaque in hand. I'm the better part of 3 years past that point.*

Oh, and I can shoot a gun, too, as can any and all Joe Schmoes lining up to be allowed to enter the compound in our hypothetical scenario. Pick me, pick me! I'll be sheriff and doctor. :weee:

* of course, only one of those post-grad years, my surgery year, is relevant. Radiology hasn't sharpened my uterus-sewing skills :rofl: although I do suture and tie somewhat regularly when on the interventional service.
Didn't know you were medically trained. Want to move next door to me? I think my general point still stands - most of us (with out the plaque) will be ****ed by anything non-trivial.... 'back in the day' death rates were really high.

Caught influenza recently? Survived? Awesome.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
Here's another thing to complement the NREL graphs above: What states are or are not screwed once the coal, oil, and natural gas run out?

http://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2009/apr/electric-grid/

Picking out some states with a favorable mix:

Vermont: 99% renewable or at least not fossil fuel based, with 71% nuclear, 21% hydro, and 7% biomass
Idaho: 84% renewable, with 79% hydro(electric) and 5% biomass
Washington: 80% renewable, with 71% hydro and 8% nuclear
Oregon: 65% renewable, with 62% hydro, 2% biomass, 1% wind
South Carolina: 56% renewable, with 52% nuclear, 2% hydro, 2% biomass
New Jersey: 53% renewable, with 52% nuclear, 1% biomass
California: 50% renewable, with 20% hydro, 18% nuclear, 7% geothermal, 3% geothermal, 2% wind
New Hampshire: 50% renewable, with 39% nuclear, 7% hydro, 4% biomass
South Dakota: 49% renewable, with 47% hydro and 2% wind
Connecticut: 49% renewable, with 46% nuclear, 2% biomass, 1% hydro
New York: 47% renewable, with 29% nuclear, 17% hydro, 1% biomass

Contrast these numbers to, say, any of the dark states on this map (dark blue equates to > 75% generation by coal):



The mere existence of this many states so reliant on coal is what's going to keep any political progress from being made, which in turn is part of what sparked my initial post. No way will politicians from those states doom their careers by legislating against their constituents' own product, for better or worse.
 

SkaredShtles

Michael Bolton
Sep 21, 2003
65,705
12,739
In a van.... down by the river
It's not going to be a sudden swift end to the supply of coal, oil, and NG. Supplies will gradually dwindle, which will bring an increase in prices, which will eventually make "more expensive" renewable energy relatively "cheaper"... which will lead all those states to move to renewable sources.

But you knew this already, didn't you?
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
It's not going to be a sudden swift end to the supply of coal, oil, and NG. Supplies will gradually dwindle, which will bring an increase in prices, which will eventually make "more expensive" renewable energy relatively "cheaper"... which will lead all those states to move to renewable sources.

But you knew this already, didn't you?
Ah, but they won't become cheaper in absolute terms. The whole world will become poorer since so much of our wealth is predicated on the availability of cheap oil. The only way to game the system is to guess correctly and time one's large-scale (nation-scale) purchases of solar and wind fabrication at the tail end of the cheap oil era but before widespread recognition and demand drives prices for the same through the roof.

That said, we're a long way from that point. However, we will reach that point, since, as I wrote, there's every incentive in the world for every last tar sand to be dug up, every last rock to be squeezed for its blood, and every last lump of coal to be dragged to the surface of the earth and burned.
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
Toshi, how long do we got?
I think we'll all be sitting pretty for our lifetimes. The catch is that I don't think there's anything we can do on a global scale to make the next few centuries better--the cow is most definitely out of the barn.

Like I said, the incentives are all wrong...
 

amishmatt

Turbo Monkey
Sep 21, 2005
1,264
397
Lancaster, PA
Sniff Petrol has our answer:

http://www.sniffpetrol.com/issue038.html

LEXUS PREVIEWS PIKEY POWER


The Lexus HPX prepares to fill up with special 'low income' fuel, yseterday.

In an attempt capitalise on Gordon Brown's recent move to promote bio-fuel technologies, Lexus has revealed that its new HPX concept may be developed to run on a previously untapped fuel resource - poor people.
Available as a dual fuel option at first, the production version of the HPX will accept standard petroleum, or up to 50kg of poverty. Details as to the material form of 'poor' are still being kept secret, but it is thought that low income families will be ground down into a fine paste that, once treated,will power the 4.3-litre 32-valve 300bhp V8 engine. Lexus expects the new fuel will become available from all major petroleum retailers in upper income areas. When drivers find themselves in districts with unnaturally high proportions of satellite TV viewing and Viscount biscuit consumption standard 95RON fuel will suffice, although Lexus technical director Yashimito Cheesdorito hinted that 'in an emergency you could probably just grab a teenager in a Kappa top and squash him into the filler neck.'
Lexus insiders are said to be particularly delighted that their planned dual fuel innovation will reach the market before BMW's rival system, Immigrantronic, which runs almost exclusively on asylum seekers.
'This really is a radical system from Lexus,' noted industry expert Ranpit Tratt. 'With this rate of progress who knows, maybe one day they might even launch a diesel engine.'
 

Toshi

Harbinger of Doom
Oct 23, 2001
38,312
7,738
So some people on the NASIOC thread seemed to think that my message was "go big or go home". That's not really it.

I'm not condemning those who don't go "all the way" and live in a treehouse (like Joan Baez--no joke: I just read a story about her falling out of her treehouse and having to be hospitalized :rofl: ). To do so, and to renounce the amazing number of good things that our modern lifestyle brings, of which modern medicine is probably one of the best IMO, is simply idiocy: it's doing something to make a statement even though that statement will be completely and utterly irrelevant.

I don't want to do things to make a statement. I want to do things because they have an effect. How I see it, however, I don't see any way that we'll end up with an endgame other than the one I foresee: of every last lump of coal dug up and burned, of every last drop of oil squeezed out of the sands of the earth. (What will happen as a consequence isn't really my main point--people with money and education will prosper and billions will suffer, but that's not really different from the status quo today...)
 

woodsguy

gets infinity MPG
Mar 18, 2007
1,083
1
Sutton, MA
It's not going to be a sudden swift end to the supply of coal, oil, and NG. Supplies will gradually dwindle, which will bring an increase in prices, which will eventually make "more expensive" renewable energy relatively "cheaper"... which will lead all those states to move to renewable sources.

But you knew this already, didn't you?

I heard that it will be a sudden drop off because the last bit will be too hard to get out. Its like getting the last bit of ketchup out of the bottle. Its there but you can't get it.
 

CrabJoe StretchPants

Reincarnated Crab Walking Head Spinning Bruce Dick
Nov 30, 2003
14,163
2,484
Groton, MA
I heard that it will be a sudden drop off because the last bit will be too hard to get out. Its like getting the last bit of ketchup out of the bottle. Its there but you can't get it.
Pour in a bit of water and swish it around? Will that work here as well?