warning : we're heading to a recession

[LordOpie]

Even if the Fed drops rates this week by 0.25%, we're still looking at a slow down. And the Federal Reserve insight is, they don't believe it's their job to manage or fix the economy, unlike Alan Greenspan, former Fed chief.

As such, they're not likely to drop rates at all.

I think a 0.5% drop would be necessary to fend off a recession.


Regardless of what they do, we're looking at an economic slowdown for at least five years. If they drop rates to fend off a recession -- NECESSARY -- then we're looking at increased inflation. If they don't drop rates, then there will be a lot of people losing jobs.

[Secret Squirrel]

That's cause Greenspan actually had a f*ckin' clue...

[Echo]

I'll acknowledge a recession when I get my pinkslip :D

[rockwool]

Wasn't Greenspan head of the worldbank aswell a year or so back?

[LordOpie]

That's cause Greenspan actually had a f*ckin' clue...

agreed.

I'll acknowledge a recession when I get my pinkslip :D
I'm serious bro. Three months from now for the next five years will be a horrible job market. Change jobs now or do whatever you can to keep the one you have.

[MMike]

Heed the jew!!! He knows!!

[Echo]

I'm serious bro. Three months from now for the next five years will be a horrible job market. Change jobs now or do whatever you can to keep the one you have.
Definitely... I really wanna get my house paid off while I have this job because I doubt there's many other places around here that will pay me this much. Once my hizzy is paid for I don't need to make nearly as much money to live.

[SkaredShtles]

http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/chicken_little.jpg

[LordOpie]

Heed the jew!!! He knows!!

When you're thirsty, do you not follow the camel?Definitely... I really wanna get my house paid off while I have this job because I doubt there's many other places around here that will pay me this much. Once my hizzy is paid for I don't need to make nearly as much money to live.
good plan.
...
And what makes you think the economy is sound and recession-proof?

[SkaredShtles]

<snip>
And what makes you think the economy is sound and recession-proof?
It's not recession proof. :rolleyes: Just come back to me in 5 years and let's compare notes...

I'd say a recession in the short term would be good for my prospects of getting a nice little pad in the mountains. :thumb:

[LordOpie]

It's not recession proof. :rolleyes: Just come back to me in 5 years and let's compare notes...

So you're not concerned about:

-- housing market dumping
-- falling consumer confidence
-- consumer savings rate's continued downward trend and lowest ever
-- continued weakening of the US Dollar
-- Federal Reserve unlikely to lower rates
-- Fed Govt's deficit out of control
-- inflation outpacing growth


To me, this adds up to a govt that is unable and unwilling to do anything about the economic outlook. Business slowing their spending. Consumers spending less. Consumers earning less.

This is the type of vicious cycle that was avoided when Greenspan was in charge of the amount of money in circulation and spending under control by the congress and PotUS.

Where is the money going to come from?

[SkaredShtles]

So you're not concerned about:

Not particularly.

You're just getting your panties in a wad because you're about to be a new dad. :p

[LordOpie]

Not particularly.
Ah, right, the old head-in-the-sand ploy.

Excellent.

[SkaredShtles]

Ah, right, the old head-in-the-sand ploy.

Excellent.
No head in the sand. If we have a 5 year recession let's just say that I'm plenty well prepared. Which allows me the luxury of not getting my panties in a wad over this Chicken Little nonsense.

Like I said - come back in 5 years and let's compare notes.

Are all your investments in cash right now?

[skatetokil]

If it was just a recession I would be ecstatic. The problem is our political system seems unable to confront the fundamental insanity of its tax/subsidy structure, regulatory approach, and growth model. This is not a problem that can be solved by low interest rates, though they might dull the edge of what's to come. This is not (primarily) the Fed's fault, though the housing bubble may be to future generations what the '29 stock market crash is to us. Bad regulations, loose credit, and financial mercenaries contributed to both events, but such "crashes" are just the most visible and dramatic examples of a contraction.

In the sense that crises tend to reacquaint the politicians with reality, the present reckoning could be good for America, but only if we can keep the usual special interest suspects from putting their dicks in the proverbial mashed potatoes when it comes time for reform and recovery.

[Silver]

http://www.slate.com/id/2096313/

Greenspan isn't a god. Competent, but he still made mistakes.

[Westy]

Clinton really ****ed things up.

[jimmydean]

I now make 92% of what I made in 2000 and it only cost me $35k in student loans to get my income back to that level. At least with this job, my carer is "at the next level" so if something was to happen, the bar is well raised at this point.

[SkaredShtles]

Clinton really ****ed things up.
:rofl: :rofl:

[LordOpie]

In the sense that crises tend to reacquaint the politicians with reality, the present reckoning could be good for America, but only if we can keep the usual special interest suspects from putting their dicks in the proverbial mashed potatoes when it comes time for reform and recovery.

I hear ya, but the problem is, we cycle politicians in-and-out of office. While there is serious benefit to that, the political system has short-term memory.

Which is why I advocate -- not that my word means anything -- a Federal Reserve "solution".

The next PotUS will have his job cut out in balancing the budget and getting that part of the economy under control, but any "long-term" solution is destined to be destroyed by self-interest of the ruling parties at the time and a failure to implement a short-term solution now means many families will be devastated by the upcoming lay-offs.

[Westy]

Luckily the economy has been so good we can just do a little deficit spending for a little while to get things back on track. Oh wait...

[LordOpie]

Luckily the economy has been so good we can just do a little deficit spending for a little while to get things back on track. Oh wait...

Exactly :(

[stevew]

Luckily the economy has been so good we can just do a little deficit spending for a little while to get things back on track. Oh wait...
How about a new and exciting war?

[skatetokil]

If only war were still a profitable enterprise for us we might not be in this mess, but even our government's warmaking apparatus is all screwed up.

[skatetokil]

So, what are the pros and cons of a very weak dollar in your mind?

[Westy]

So, what are the pros and cons of a very weak dollar in your mind?

Biggest Con: A further weakening dollar might cause a selloff of US bonds. With a huge national debt being held by foreign governments a little country like South Korea could sell off and flood the market of their US bonds causing a panicked sell off. This would cause the dollar to spiral out of control, bankrupting the US and most likely the international economy.

[SkaredShtles]

Biggest Con: A further weakening dollar might cause a selloff of US bonds. With a huge national debt being held by foreign governments a little country like South Korea could sell off and flood the market of their US bonds causing a panicked sell off. This would cause the dollar to spiral out of control, bankrupting the US and most likely the international economy.
I remember this scenario being discussed back in the mid- to late-80's. Maybe this time it'll happen. Furrin gubmints do seem to be awfully optimistic, IMO, about the US government.

[narlus]

If only war were still a profitable enterprise for us we might not be in this mess, but even our government's warmaking apparatus is all screwed up.

war still is a profitable enterprise for them

[LordOpie]

So, what are the pros and cons of a very weak dollar in your mind?
Actually, a weak dollar does have some benefit.

If it's more profitable to produce goods in the US, then we can start balancing the trade deficit. Unfortunately, the dollar would have to drop a significant amount. At least people would be more encouraged to buy locally with a weaker dollar as well as the scares from unmanaged overseas production, eg. China poisoning kids.

Maybe tech support will be brought back home?

Thing is, those are medium- to long-term positives.

In the short term, a weak dollar means a form of inflation. Sh1t will just cost more, people will spend less.

[Westy]

I remember this scenario being discussed back in the mid- to late-80's. Maybe this time it'll happen. Furrin gubmints do seem to be awfully optimistic, IMO, about the US government.

It almost happened a few years ago. I can't remember the details but I think the South Korean Gov. was simply thinking about unloading US bonds in favor of more profitable ones. That alone would have devaluated the dollar enough that it could have caused a panic sell off from other countries caousing chaos. It took a diplomatic envoy to convince them not to do it.

The reality of it all is that there are several countries that could bring us to our knees with no military action. The only thing that prevents it is most other countries economy rely on ours also doing well so it is kind of like a financial mutually assured destruction.

[Westy]

Actually, a weak dollar does have some benefit.

If it's more profitable to produce goods in the US, then we can start balancing the trade deficit. Unfortunately, the dollar would have to drop a significant amount. At least people would be more encouraged to buy locally with a weaker dollar as well as the scares from unmanaged overseas production, eg. China poisoning kids.

Maybe tech support will be brought back home?

Thing is, those are medium- to long-term positives.

In the short term, a weak dollar means a form of inflation. Sh1t will just cost more, people will spend less.


It is good if you owe a lot of money. Not so good if you have saved/loaned money.

[SkaredShtles]

It almost happened a few years ago. I can't remember the details but I think the South Korean Gov. was simply thinking about unloading US bonds in favor of more profitable ones. That alone would have devaluated the dollar enough that it could have caused a panic sell off from other countries caousing chaos. It took a diplomatic envoy to convince them not to do it.

The reality of it all is that there are several countries that could bring us to our knees with no military action. The only thing that prevents it is most other countries economy rely on ours also doing well so it is kind of like a financial mutually assured destruction.
Bingo. Which pretty much keeps everybody on an even keel. What might tip the scale is if one of those countries goes into a spiral and sells off figuring things couldn't get any worse.

Of course, the gubmint could always just default on the notes and tell those countries to pound sand. Which entails its own set of nasty outcomes.

[SkaredShtles]

It is good if you owe a lot of money. Not so good if you have saved/loaned money.
Which would mean good things for 98% of the US population! Disaster averted. :rofl:

[Changleen]

Heed the jew!!! He knows!!:stupid:

Edit: Actually, I don't have a clue about the US economy right now. But what MMike says ain't normally wrong! lol

What I'm wondering is if this is a good or bad thing for the dinghy-in-a-hurricane that is the NZ$..

[FlyinPolack]

Outsourcing to 3rd world countries is the current economy killer.
build factories in China=Close factories in US=Layoff thousands of US workers=thousands of US forclosures.

Stop buying Chinese crap. You are paying for the army that will someday come & kill us. Literally...

[valve bouncer]

Outsourcing to 3rd world countries is the current economy killer.
build factories in China=Close factories in US=Layoff thousands of US workers=thousands of US forclosures.

Stop buying Chinese crap. You are paying for the army that will someday come & kill us. Literally...
Good luck trying to ignore China. Do us a favour and go and check where the computer you typed this exenophobic rant on is made? Bet it's China. Bet you've got at least a hundred things in your house made there. Attitudes like yours are destined to result in a spectacular Canutian failure.

[Westy]

Outsourcing to 3rd world countries is the current economy killer.
build factories in China=Close factories in US=Layoff thousands of US workers=thousands of US forclosures.

Stop buying Chinese crap. You are paying for the army that will someday come & kill us. Literally...

See above posts. China does not need an army to make the US fold like a deck of cards. But a military or financial war is unlikely as their prosperity and well being is tied directly to ours.

Those forclosures you are talking about has less to do with Americans losing their jobs as dumb asses taking out risky loans and mortgage companies rolling the dice on the real estate market.

[Westy]

Just some numbers to back up what I said above.

From Wikipedia.

The People's Republic of China holds the most U.S. debt, ending the first quarter of 2007 with over $1.2 trillion in total foreign reserves, of which about $420.2 billion are U.S. Treasury securities.[

[Spero]

See above posts. China does not need an army to make the US fold like a deck of cards. But a military or financial war is unlikely as their prosperity and well being is tied directly to ours.

Those forclosures you are talking about has less to do with Americans losing their jobs as dumb asses taking out risky loans and mortgage companies rolling the dice on the real estate market.

The general population has, for the most part, been pretty irresponsible with credit for a while now. Yeah, more so now than in the past, but i don't believe that's the majority of the meat of the problem. I'll stick to blaming the lenders...and their employees will most likely agree with that sentiment.

Edit: My 2 cents on the original post - I don't know why it should be a surprise to anyone...it wasn't hard to see this coming a year and a half ago.

[ire]

The general population has, for the most part, been pretty irresponsible with credit for a while now.

I'm reading a good book right now talking about this...the theory is that our (the U.S.) consumer market has reached its max ability to buy goods, becuase everyone is in debt. Its not that we won't continue to buy, but it will cause a slow down across the board from the aggressive growth we've seen in the economy (causing at a slow down, if not recession with the other woes). I would state more, but I'm not done with the book :)

The book is "Capitalism at the Crossroads"

[skatetokil]

yeah, my dad is buddy buddy with the author somehow. been meaning to read it myself.

[SkaredShtles]

Hey LO - how have those stock shorts been working out lately? :p

[LordOpie]

Hey LO - how have those stock shorts been working out lately? :p

from original post...

I think a 0.5% drop would be necessary to fend off a recession.

I am a genius.

[SkaredShtles]

<snip>
-- Federal Reserve unlikely to lower rates

Lest we forget, Genius. :p

[LordOpie]

Lest we forget, Genius. :p

I sent them an email.

[ire]

A fair amount of stocks are down, good time to buy for the long haul.

[SkaredShtles]

A fair amount of stocks are down, good time to buy for the long haul.
Isn't it primarily the financial stocks that have seen the decline? I suspect they'll see even more downside before they turn around.

The market averages are actually up quite nicely since this mortgage nonsense broke.

[Westy]

Isn't it primarily the financial stocks that have seen the decline? I suspect they'll see even more downside before they turn around.

The market averages are actually up quite nicely since this mortgage nonsense broke.


My stocks went up quite a bit. A large portion of them are in a corporation with a huge financial division, just a financial division that didn't **** up.

[SkaredShtles]

My stocks went up quite a bit. A large portion of them are in a corporation with a huge financial division, just a financial division that didn't **** up.
Let's face it - most non-retarded lenders didn't get too much into that mess.

Sub prime borrowers. It means lending to people who can't afford the loan. Is it really a shock to people that it came to this? :brow:

[ire]

Let's face it - most non-retarded lenders didn't get too much into that mess.

Sub prime borrowers. It means lending to people who can't afford the loan. Is it really a shock to people that it came to this? :brow:

They were wrapped into bundles with low risk loans and so it brought the security (I think thats the word) to an A rating. The theory was that the low risk would offset the high risk and they had a formula for it all (an untested one). There was an article that explained why it was having an impact on the stock market, it has nothing to do with bank stock going down....it has everything to do with hedge funds.

[SkaredShtles]

They were wrapped into bundles with low risk loans and so it brought the security (I think thats the word) to an A rating. The theory was that the low risk would offset the high risk and they had a formula for it all (an untested one). There was an article that explained why it was having an impact on the stock market, it has nothing to do with bank stock going down....it has everything to do with hedge funds.
Find me that article - because it appears to be mistaken. :D

[DavidMakalaster]

Our economy's trouble in lower class bull****. Small businesses are thriving, the middle class is making money like never before, product sales are through the roof despite high prices, and and quality of living is going up across the board. Anyone that thinks our debt and spending have anything to do with the shape of the economy is clueless. Small business runs this country. Not to mention any smart investor could make more money now than anytime in the last 50 years.

[ire]

Find me that article - because it appears to be mistaken. :D

I'm trying, its been about two months since I read it.

[ire]

Small businesses are thriving, the middle class is making money like never before, product sales are through the roof despite high prices, and and quality of living is going up across the board.

Really? Sure your not clueless?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14251360/site/newsweek/

[SkaredShtles]

Really? Sure your not clueless?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14251360/site/newsweek/
Cut him some slack. He's in Alabama. :rofl:

[skatetokil]

Our economy's trouble in lower class bull****. Small businesses are thriving, the middle class is making money like never before, product sales are through the roof despite high prices, and and quality of living is going up across the board. Anyone that thinks our debt and spending have anything to do with the shape of the economy is clueless. Small business runs this country. Not to mention any smart investor could make more money now than anytime in the last 50 years.

Small businesses may employ much of the country but to say they run it is ridiculous. If people have that kind of access to government funds they almost by definition cease to run small businesses.

[blue]

Our economy's trouble in lower class bull****. Small businesses are thriving, the middle class is making money like never before, product sales are through the roof despite high prices, and and quality of living is going up across the board. Anyone that thinks our debt and spending have anything to do with the shape of the economy is clueless. Small business runs this country. Not to mention any smart investor could make more money now than anytime in the last 50 years.

What in the motherfvck are you talking about? The middle class is in the ****tiest position it's been in since before the term "middle class" was coined.

[ire]

What in the motherfvck are you talking about? The middle class is in the ****tiest position it's been in since before the term "middle class" was coined.

a debt to income ratio of 126% isn't good?? I'm confused :huh:

[SkaredShtles]

What in the motherfvck are you talking about? The middle class is in the ****tiest position it's been in since before the term "middle class" was coined.

But they got more stuff! And they need more stuff! And they want more stuff!

GIVE ME MORE STUFF!!

:D

[SPINTECK]

But they got more stuff! And they need more stuff! And they want more stuff!

GIVE ME MORE STUFF!!

:D


I don't know if it's really for more stuff now. When you have kids you have daycare or loose your job, that's 800-1000/month right there. vaccinations, co-pays, growing clothing, gas higher, milk higher,dollar sinking- conservatives make all the basics more so the middle class has to work harder and the old money controlling the basics reap the dividends. working families are like sheep to be fleece, but many don't know to get their money out of a country going to war and inflating their debt.

Thank God congress voted to increase the debt ceiling last week, that will really add value to the dollar in combination to the fed making more money for bad bank loans, which by the way has never been done before.

One thereory is to create a perceived crisis so global players can sell us citizens on the Amero, but that's a pretty crazy rumor in my opinion.

[SkaredShtles]

I don't know if it's really for more stuff now. When you have kids you have daycare or loose your job, that's 800-1000/month right there. vaccinations, co-pays, growing clothing, gas higher, milk higher,dollar sinking- conservatives make all the basics more so the middle class has to work harder and the old money controlling the basics reap the dividends.

Bull$hit. Everybody is still keeping up with the Joneses. Two new cars, a boat, a couple jet skis, mobile phones for every f**king person in the house, a big plasma TV, iPods for ever family member, a 3500 sq foot house with a bedroom for every f**king person in the house...

[valve bouncer]

But they got more stuff! And they need more stuff! And they want more stuff!

GIVE ME MORE STUFF!!

:D
Life is short, filled with stuff.

[SPINTECK]

Most of us with boats have 3 cars because a tow hitch just looks too ugly on the beemers:)

[ire]

Bull$hit. Everybody is still keeping up with the Joneses. Two new cars, a boat, a couple jet skis, mobile phones for every f**king person in the house, a big plasma TV, iPods for ever family member, a 3500 sq foot house with a bedroom for every f**king person in the house...

I've seen it both ways. I have some friends that finance to the gills to get all the big toys, but I have other friends who struggle paycheck to paycheck with two kids. Some of the problems are self-inflicted with over spending on luxury items, but the big problems is the lack of wage increases. With inflation going up up (wasn't it around 4 points last year?) and wages not, we all in effect make less money each year.

[SkaredShtles]

I've seen it both ways. I have some friends that finance to the gills to get all the big toys, but I have other friends who struggle paycheck to paycheck with two kids. Some of the problems are self-inflicted with over spending on luxury items, but the big problems is the lack of wage increases. With inflation going up up (wasn't it around 4 points last year?) and wages not, we all in effect make less money each year.
No - I've highlighted the problem.

Inflation was about 3% last year. Which is fairly average when looking over the last 25 years.

[Reactor]

a debt to income ratio of 126% isn't good?? I'm confused :huh:

Not compared to the federal gubberments ratio of 800%.....

[ire]

Not compared to the federal gubberments ratio of 800%.....

Is that really what it is??? I knew the national debt was large, but I didn't know it was that big :disgust1: What in the hell is wrong with Washington? :banghead:

[Changleen]

What in the hell is wrong with Washington? :banghead:George.

[SkaredShtles]

George.
George Washington? :confused: :confused: :p

[LordOpie]

George Washington? :confused: :confused: :p

No stupid.

George Takei... he's gay.

[ire]

No stupid.

George Takei... he's gay.

It's the gays fault? I knew there was a conspiracy!!

[valve bouncer]

Quiet in here today. Guess everyone is on the phone to their broker.

[$tinkle]

good thing my broker uses a cordless phone so that i can still conduct business as he hurls himself 34 stories (seconds do count)

[Westy]

So far things are that bad. Only about 1.5% down for the day and my three biggest investments are actually up, only a smidge but up.

[Echo]

I'm afraid to look :(

[$tinkle]

normally i wouldn't care that much, but i'm trying to pay off a car i just bought late last year by selling some stock. i think i'll sit on the payments for a few months instead.

oh look! a squirrel!

[Echo]

Sweet, I only lost a couple grand since yesterday.

[Secret Squirrel]

normally i wouldn't care that much, but i'm trying to pay off a car i just bought late last year by selling some stock. i think i'll sit on the payments for a few months instead.

oh look! a squirrel!

Where?!?!?!?

[X3pilot]

I think this is the correction that we needed. But I can't understand the Fed dropping rates again. Seems irresponsible to encourage consumers to spend more and go further in debt while further weakening the dollar globally. But, I'm no economist..I'm only a weak minded consumer who likes to pay his bills and make sure there is $$ in the bank to cover checks written.

[$tinkle]

But I can't understand the Fed dropping rates again. Seems irresponsible to encourage consumers to spend more and go further in debt while further weakening the dollar globally.not sure if i agree to the implied causality, but maybe something more subtle may be at hand? again, i'm projecting, so i see it as: rate goes down. stock price goes up (or is at least buoyed). i sell stock. i pay off debt.

my take on the typical american is (s)he does not equate accruing cc debt as equal to spending. seems to me if one is inclined to saddle up more debt, a little thing like a recession won't slow them down much. just take a peek in the lounge for some prime examples from our fiscally-impaired community.

[LordOpie]

I think this is the correction that we needed. But I can't understand the Fed dropping rates again. Seems irresponsible to encourage consumers to spend more and go further in debt while further weakening the dollar globally. But, I'm no economist..I'm only a weak minded consumer who likes to pay his bills and make sure there is $$ in the bank to cover checks written.
I could not agree more. I think the Fed and Admin need to tell people to suck it up, be more responsible for the next few years and act like an adult until the mess is fixed with the next Admin.

But they won't admit they screwed up.
http://scottdiatribe.gluemeat.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/chicken_little.jpg

:busted:

[dante]

I could not agree more. I think the Fed and Admin need to tell people to suck it up, be more responsible for the next few years and act like an adult until the mess is fixed with the next Admin.

But they won't admit they screwed up.


:busted:

I can't imagine, in this environment, that people are going to get their 0% interest credit cards and go out and run up more debt than they already have (and can't pay back)! Then again, I couldn't imagine buying a house 2-3 years ago with for more than I could afford with an interest-only, option ARM either. :disgust:

[LordOpie]

I can't imagine, in this environment, that people are going to get their 0% interest credit cards and go out and run up more debt than they already have (and can't pay back)! Then again, I couldn't imagine buying a house 2-3 years ago with for more than I could afford with an interest-only, option ARM either. :disgust:

I agree, except that managers still have to tell the waiters daily to fill their customers water glasses... sometimes, you have to state the obvious.

Also, investor's need to re-set their thinking cuz they have too much control over the marketplace when it comes to Fed and Admin policy.

[X3pilot]

I didn't mean to imply that I desire a stock market crash, although I've posted to that effect before and just didn't phrase my thoughts right. Artifically inflated markets based on speculation leads to more finacial trouble that becomes harder and harder to recover from. i.e. dot-com, housing, etc.

I would like to see a stabilization of the markets and an allowing of the dollar to regain some strength to prior levels. The Administration has explicitly stated that they would like to offer tax rebated in the hopes that people will go out and spend them immediately. How fiscally irresponsible is that??? They did this last time and it backfired because people put it in the bank or payed off prior debt.

This can't be bailed out and the current Admin is simply trying to band aid this recession, yes, it is a recession, in the hopes of saving or gaining a few votes this fall. Belts need to be tightened and spending may have to slow to actually fall in line with the theory of no more money out than money coming in.

[LordOpie]

what X3 said.

[BMXman]

It looks like the weak US dollar is already having a pretty big effect on the CAD..I hope the US gets their sh!t straight...I'm meeting to many Canadians who don't realize how dependent Canada is on the US:rant:

[Plummit]

More bad news on the real estate front. Huge jump in CA foreclosures. From the SF Chronicle (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/22/BUTEUJN7I.DTL&tsp=1).

Lenders repossessed 31,676 residences in California in the October-November-December period, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla research firm. That was a dramatic 421.2 percent increase from 6,078 in the year-ago quarter.

In the Bay Area, foreclosures rose an equally stunning 482.5 percent to 4,573 in the fourth quarter, compared with 785 a year ago. Contra Costa County, with 1,558 foreclosures, up 533.3 percent from a year ago, had the most, followed by Alameda County with 1,026 (a 514.4 percent increase) and Solano County with 704 (up 528.6 percent).

Goes on to say, as you might expect, that a higher percentage of default notices are ending in foreclosure than in years past.

I also believe that the next large wave of subprime resets are due to hit in Q2 this year.

[jimmydean]

It looks like the weak US dollar is already having a pretty big effect on the CAD..I hope the US gets their sh!t straight...I'm meeting to many Canadians who don't realize how dependent Canada is on the US:rant:

Canada, the USA's fat best friend.

[SkaredShtles]

I wish the bottom would fall out of the goddam resort market. :rant:

[narlus]

get a job, hippie.

[dante]

Canada, the USA's fat best friend.

no way, Canada's been making us look bad for WAY too long now. probably closer to hot, psychotic friend... :lighten:

[$tinkle]

ok, had a friend over for dinner last night who's dir. of ops. for a rather large title company in boulder (his territory is denver), and here are a few things he threw out last night:
- 1/3 of realtors are not renewing their licenses for this year
- the commercial side of their business is the only reason they hit their overall budget (residential was down by half)
- he's laid off over 100 people in the last couple of yrs with almost no hiring
- what we've seen w/ foreclosures in the denver area will be at least matched this year, if not exceeded

the 3/4 pt fed rate cut is evidence of blood in the water; today's the last best day to get liquid for about a year unless something rather significant happens on the Hill, like cut capital gains for businesses. once/month he goes to d.c. & mingles w/ lobbyists, but this good ole boys club is getting more exclusive with less cash floating about.

2 upshots: congress may actually vote whatever conscience they have left w/o being wooed by cash, & the only realtors left have chops. probably have to re-paint a lot of bustop benches now.

[$tinkle]

part II:

i asked another friend who's a dir. for a private investment firm in manhattan about stuff (we used to smoke a lot of pot together in h.s. - don't ask), and here's the exchange:

the questions being:
- how badly does the housing/lending market affect the economy?
- how bad are things on the Street?
- for how long can we expect to feel the pinch on our investments?


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: John
Date: Jan 23, 2008 9:50 AM
To: $tinkle


That's the $20k question right now. There are a lot of different
opinions on how badly the housing implosion is going to affect the
overall economy. Consumer spending is 2/3 of overall economic activity,
so to the extent a significant portion of the spending over the last few
years, especially on bigger ticket items, was driven by people spending
money that they had pulled out of their houses through home equity loans
(or was done on credit cards or other financing schemes because people
"felt" richer due to rising home equity), then there could be a pretty
big pullback. That said, the US consumer has had their epitaph written
before only to rise from the ashes. Personally, I think a fair amount
of the pain from a 401k perspective has been felt already as the markets
are down 10-15% this month alone. I feel like worst case is we draw
down another 10%, but I think 5% is more likely. The market definitely
tends to lead the overall economy, so even if we're going into recession
a lot of the pain from a market perspective is probably behind us unless
things get really, really ugly.

[X3pilot]

Seems to be aligned right along with what all the other ecperts are saying. As for 401k, I'm not worried about that because I don't plan on retiring, i.e. using it, for another 10-15 years.

With the consumer providing 2/3 of the economy, I still say that flooding the market with new dollars will only cause inflation (hadn't heard of that lately have we?)

But, guess it's a good thing that we may be at bottom. Nowhere to go but up.

[dante]

posted mortgage rates at Wells Fargo just dropped by 50bp down to 5.125 for a 30y fixed. :shocked: Damn, why couldn't they have been at that rate 2 months ago... :disgust:

[jimmydean]

posted mortgage rates at Wells Fargo just dropped by 50bp down to 5.125 for a 30y fixed. :shocked: Damn, why couldn't they have been at that rate 2 months ago... :disgust:

I figure by this time next year I can snatch up my own bank owned McMansion for about a buck-o-five.

[Westy]

I figure by this time next year I can snatch up my own bank owned McMansion for about a buck-o-five.


If I don't end up getting laid off I'm going to become a slum lord.

[SkaredShtles]

get a job, hippie.

:monkeydance::monkeydance::monkeydance:

[Wumpus]

Just some numbers to back up what I said above.

From Wikipedia.

The People's Republic of China holds the most U.S. debt, ending the first quarter of 2007 with over $1.2 trillion in total foreign reserves, of which about $420.2 billion are U.S. Treasury securities.



We better fire up the printing presses.

[N8]

If I don't end up getting laid off I'm going to become a slum lord.

I'm lookin to buy some property in Colorado Springs since the market there is in the sh!tter.

Nice place.. beautiful location and lots to do

[$tinkle]

I'm lookin to buy some property in Colorado Springs since the market there is in the sh!tter.

Nice place.. beautiful location and lots to dodenver's sh|ttier; if i had to do it over & could work from anywhere, i'd choose the western slope or saguache county; whole pile of nothing but wind. i'm getting tired of people in general.

buddy of mine in town is selling his house. base of blodgett peak & butts up to the af academy: appraised at $1.2M but he'll take $975K (nicely equipped). the garage even has a sluice to catch fj queefs

[N8]

denver's sh|ttier; if i had to do it over & could work from anywhere, i'd choose the western slope or saguache county; whole pile of nothing but wind. i'm getting tired of people in general.

buddy of mine in town is selling his house. base of blodgett peak & butts up to the af academy: appraised at $1.2M but he'll take $975K (nicely equipped). the garage even has a sluice to catch fj queefs

Mmmm... sluice....

:drool:

[X3pilot]

Heard the Shrub talking about the economic stimulus package and he actually refered to our economy as strong and robust right now...WTF?? Doesn't Lord Cheney clear his comments anymore?

Both sides have agreed to give tax rebates to all workers, even the ones who don't earn enough to pay income tax. ????

Maybe in this new world order of stupid economics, my LBS will give me a rebate on the bike I haven't bought!

Just throw another 150 billion onto the defecit and let my kid worry about passing the national debt on to his kids!

[$tinkle]

Heard the Shrub talking about the economic stimulus package and he actually refered to our economy as strong and robust right now...WTF?? a weak economy couldn't [deficit] spend like we do.
see?
Both sides have agreed to give tax rebates to all workers, even the ones who don't earn enough to pay income tax. ????i think the reasoning is they still paid fica & ss tax.
and in a twisted, irresponsible way, it will stimulate the economy, and make the co-dependence on the working class even stronger. hell, it straight exploits them, as they are more likely to impulse spend than middle class who would more likely pay down debt, or sock it away into a college fund. i know i am.

[Westy]

a weak economy couldn't [deficit] spend like we do.
see?
i think the reasoning is they still paid fica & ss tax.
and in a twisted, irresponsible way, it will stimulate the economy, and make the co-dependence on the working class even stronger. hell, it straight exploits them, as they are more likely to impulse spend than middle class who would more likely pay down debt, or sock it away into a college fund. i know i am.

If the economy was robust we wouldn't need to deficit spend. Our strong economy is like a trucker who hasn't slept in 5 days but has a garbage bag of full of cocaine. At some point it will crash.

[$tinkle]

Our strong economy is like a trucker who hasn't slept in 5 days but has a garbage bag of full of coccaine. At some point it will crash.in so many ways, that description is so right.

[X3pilot]

THAT'S IT!!! That is the perfect description.

As for the tax rebate, I still don't agree with the rebate even if accounting for SSI and FICA. You will supposedly get that money back one day.

Maybe Peter will file a robbery report soon...

[skatetokil]

I'm a pessimist about this economy, but I'm hedging my bets. Did a little buying yesterday morning and it's already up 10%. If I were a day trader I'd be cashing in, but I think this company has some long term prospects.

[DaveW]

Apparently it's the Dem's fault! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8l3Bm27Ank0&eurl=http://www.thestandard.org.nz/) :twitch::twitch:

[DaveW]

And This (http://publicaddress.net/default,4773.sm#post4773) is why I think NZ's govenment has it's sh!t together!

Should be interesting to see how the economic stabilizer approach works. :)
......Well unless Labour get's kicked out in the elections this year and those kneejerk retards the National party get back in. :twitch:

[Changleen]

Are kneejerk retards worse than labour's new found fascist streak?

Probably yes actually...

I have to say the smacking bill is fvcking lame though.

[DaveW]

Are kneejerk retards worse than labour's new found fascist streak?

Probably yes actually...

I have to say the smacking bill is fvcking lame though.


Yeah well National are so far up the arse of a few small lobby/business groups of a (very) dodgy nature ie the Talleys/FayRichwhite/exclusive bretheren etc etc that I just don't trust them.
Well that and the competence level of their Mp's is still seriously bad when it comes to actual ability to lead and direct.
Labour in spite of the odd bad policy HAS competent MP's when it comes to being ABLE to lead rather than fluster, bluff and bumblef**k everything they try.

Ok I'll stop ranting now. :twitch:

[valve bouncer]

How the Market Really Works
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html

[N8]

Humm...



AP
Economists See US Avoiding Recession
Tuesday March 11, 7:36 am ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Economic Forecast Sees Prolonged Housing Woes but No Recession in 2008

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The U.S. economy will suffer as the slumping housing market eats away at job creation and consumer spending, but the nation should avoid slipping into a recession this year, according to a new economic report.

A recession could still happen though, if the credit crisis that has stifled the housing market deepens, preventing consumers from buying big-ticket items like cars and businesses from spending on equipment, according to the quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles.

"We don't see that happening," said Edward Leamer, director and co-author of the forecast released Tuesday. "This is a tough call, but I will be very surprised if this thing actually precipitates into recession."

The forecast anticipates job growth remaining sluggish in 2008, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5.5 percent by the end of the year. The February rate was 4.8 percent.

The forecast expects the economy to post gross domestic product growth of about 1.5 percent this year, rising to about 3 percent growth in 2009. GDP grew 2.2 percent in 2007, the weakest showing in five years.

The no-recession forecast runs counter to the outlook among many economists and financial pundits, who contend the economy has already started to shrink amid rising unemployment, job losses, record oil prices, and the lingering effects of the housing and credit crises.

The U.S. lost 63,000 payroll jobs last month, the second consecutive month of job losses. The last time the U.S. posted a two-month drop in payroll jobs was in 2003, when employers were still struggling through the aftermath of the 2001 recession.

Leamer said the nation may be experiencing negative economic growth in the current quarter. Economists generally look for at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth before they make a recession determination.

The biggest risk of recession comes from the credit crisis that emerged last year as home values began to tumble and the number of mortgage defaults and foreclosures soared, the economist said.

Major financial institutions were racked by credit losses as the value of securities backed by mortgages sank, causing the traditional outlet through which banks borrow money to seize up.

The credit woes have deepened the housing slump, making it harder for would-be homeowners to borrow money and for homeowners to refinance. But consumer spending, while weakened, hasn't declined severely due to credit problems, Leamer notes.

"Americans are not as wealthy as they thought they were, and that's going to factor into consumer spending going forward, but it doesn't cause a recession because consumers all realize their lack of wealth at different points in time," he said.

Another potential factor in a recession would be widespread job losses. Leamer, who has maintained a no-recession forecast in recent quarters, said that's not likely.

"So far the labor markets are slowing but not collapsing," he said.

The forecast calls for the nation's housing doldrums to continue "for a long time," Leamer said.

He expects housing starts, which fell from a high of 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million units this January, to bottom out in the summer.

[LordOpie]

Humm...



yeah, that's about what we've come to expect from you.

[N8]

yeah, that's about what we've come to expect from you.

...mmuH

[SkaredShtles]

yeah, that's about what we've come to expect from you.
http://www.amachron.com/ODDBALL_SAYS.jpg

:D

[LordOpie]

http:LL_SAYS.jpg

:D
Considering he posted an article that has an opinion that even the author believes isn't well supported, well, n8 is boring without newbies to troll.

Unlike his 'counter-part' in $tinkle who's very creative.

[$tinkle]

Wall Street jumps on Fed move (http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/11/markets/markets_afternoon/index.htm?postversion=2008031115)

dow up 416 before the close.

and yes, i realize this is like a record cold day in winter doesn't unravel arguments for climate change.

just sayin...

[N8]

Wall Street jumps on Fed move (http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/11/markets/markets_afternoon/index.htm?postversion=2008031115)

dow up 416 before the close.

and yes, i realize this is like a record cold day in winter doesn't unravel arguments for climate change.

just sayin...

that's the biggest rise i've had in 5 years...



marketwise.

:pirate2:



PS: Helicopter Ben still worries me tho..

[LordOpie]

that's the biggest rise i've had in 5 years...



marketwise.

:pirate2:

Sorry you're allergic to ED meds.

[jimmydean]

Sorry you're allergic to ED meds.

His wifed swapped them for saltpeter.

[N8]

Market responding well to this news:

Crude oil falls as U.S. inventories gain more than expected
By Moming Zhou
Last update: 10:34 a.m. EDT March 12, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected, up 6.2 million barrels to 311.6 million barrels in the week ending March 7, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Platts expected a rise of 1.6 million barrels. After the data, crude-oil futures for April delivery fell $1.05, or 1%, to $107.7 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline supplies rose by 1.7 million barrels in the latest week, while distillate stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels, EIA reported.

[X3pilot]

That's good, but the recent run up of oil had nothing to do with how much we do or don't have. Speculation and runs based on weak dollar.

Take the speculation traders out of it, bid oil as a true commodity, no longs or shorts..in other words, if you bid on a barrel, you better be ready to take it and do something with it.

Again, tin foil hat time..what was Cheney's secret, still undocumentated and released, 2001 energy talks all about?

:busted:

[$tinkle]

Take the speculation traders out of it, bid oil as a true commodity, no longs or shorts..in other words, if you bid on a barrel, you better be ready to take it and do something with it.erm...and just what market would this happen? certainly not a free one. this smacks of price controls, and we've seen how that works in practice in other sectors.

:busted:

[N8]

That's good, but the recent run up of oil had nothing to do with how much we do or don't have. Speculation and runs based on weak dollar.

Take the speculation traders out of it, bid oil as a true commodity, no longs or shorts..in other words, if you bid on a barrel, you better be ready to take it and do something with it.



Oil effects everything...

[N8]

..uggggg.....

just

....uggg...

I dont see how this is going to come out well.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/12/cnfed112.xml

The US Federal Reserve has taken the boldest action since the 1930s, accepting $200bn of housing debt as collateral to prevent an implosion of the mortgage finance industry and head off a full-blown economic crisis.

[$tinkle]

it means there's going to be lots of action, which is always good*.










*if you're a trader

[N8]

it means there's going to be lots of action, which is always good*.










*if you're a trader

a semi trader.. but dammit man, where the f'ing bottom??!!!

taking the last couple day's gains over to gov securities and playing with bond funds until Monday... today the $=100 yen, oil is up again, Carlyle Group's mortgage-bond fund is in the sh!tter...

[dante]

hmmmmm, I wonder how the rising mortgage rates (although down 1/4pt over the last 3 days) are going to affect the housing crises, and the overall economy?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/conformingloans/?postversion=2008031308

dunno where the bottom is N8, but I do think it's got a ways to go before it turns around. in sept '02 it was down in the 7000s, and that was post 9/11 and post the whole options/bookkeeping issues from june of that year. not saying that it *will* fall that low, but it's not unprecedented, and by all accounts the '01 recession was milder than ones we've had before. <shrug>

[N8]

hmmmmm, I wonder how the rising mortgage rates (although down 1/4pt over the last 3 days) are going to affect the housing crises, and the overall economy?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/conformingloans/?postversion=2008031308

dunno where the bottom is N8, but I do think it's got a ways to go before it turns around. in sept '02 it was down in the 7000s, and that was post 9/11 and post the whole options/bookkeeping issues from june of that year. not saying that it *will* fall that low, but it's not unprecedented, and by all accounts the '01 recession was milder than ones we've had before. <shrug>



isnt the Fed looking to cut up to .75 off the rate next week?

[dante]

Originally was predicted to be 75bp, then that sort of trailed off to 50bp in light of the $200b cash infusion on Tues. Has cutting rates been at all effective so far this fall/winter? It seems the fed cutes rates, the dollar falls, inflation fears rise, stocks fall and long-term rates go up.

[N8]

Saw this and thought i'd post it here for you amusement...

Suppose you have the choice of selecting one of two doors.

Door 1 holds $500, Door 2 holds either $1000 or nothing.

Which do you choose?

Next, consider another two doors. Door 1 means you owe $500, Door 2 means you owe $1000 or nothing.

Which do you choose?

[LordOpie]

Originally was predicted to be 75bp, then that sort of trailed off to 50bp in light of the $200b cash infusion on Tues. Has cutting rates been at all effective so far this fall/winter? It seems the fed cutes rates, the dollar falls, inflation fears rise, stocks fall and long-term rates go up.

stagflation's a bitch.

[SkaredShtles]

stagflation's a bitch.

http://www.amachron.com/ODDBALL_SAYS.jpg

[X3pilot]

erm...and just what market would this happen? certainly not a free one. this smacks of price controls, and we've seen how that works in practice in other sectors.

:busted:

``There's nothing fundamental in the market, people are reacting to the dollar,'' said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. ``We aren't only seeing the arrival of pension fund and insurance money. There's been a wave of sloppy money coming from small investors trying to take part in the commodity rally.''

The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension fund, may increase its commodity investments 16-fold to $7.2 billion through 2010 as raw-materials prices rise to records. Calpers, which has about $240 billion in assets, agreed to the reallocation at a Feb. 19 board meeting, spokesman Clark McKinley said on Feb. 28. "


Commodities traded exactly like I said prior to 1983 when the market commodity rules changed.
Like the experts are saying, this is not a free, supply and demand oil market, we're funding your retirement because your 401k and retirement fund managers are betting on commodities. Weak dollar and all that.

bottom line is the Fed needs to suck it up, admit recession, quit dropping rates and in fact, raise the rates to limit the amount of dollars out there. we need to suck it up and ride it out. Personally, when the oil bubble bust, like tech did before it, I'm going to laugh at all the retirement funds holding out the tin cup begging the Fed to bail them out. As a country, we suck at economics.

[$tinkle]

As a country, we suck at economics.as compared to whom?

[X3pilot]

as compared to whom?

F*ck, I don't know, I'm ranting for God's sake. Don't kill my rantbuzz!

[LordOpie]

as compared to whom?

Econistan.

[DaveW]

Econistan.


Spread rep blah blah........ This is killing my Repbuzz. :disgust:

[N8]

it means there's going to be lots of action, which is always good*.










*if you're a trader


roller coaster hell!!!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080314/wall_street.html

[$tinkle]

funny, i'm getting exactly the same feeling as being on one. wet pants & all.

[N8]

Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 22% chance of a 100 basis point rate cut, with the rest of the odds on a 75 basis point cut.

There was no chance of a 100 basis point cut yesterday.

Is a 1% cut now possible?

[N8]

what really bothers me is the Fed acted as if they were dumping $200B into the Market but that was a flat lie.

They lent that money to BSC and Chase to bail them out but they let the world believe otherwise and the Markets went up 400 points the biggest gain in 5 years on that news but it was a bogus lie....


The Federal Reserve issued a press release that stated it is "monitoring market developments closely and will continue to provide liquidity as needed." The Board unanimously approved the JPMorgan Chase (JPM 366.66, -1.45) and Bear Stearns (BSC 31.47, -25.53) arrangement

[dante]

are the two related? I had thought that they were two separate incidents.

and I'm also not sure exactly where I heard it, but thought that the biggest 1-day movers in the market usually happened in bear markets... I think that tues was a bunch of people try to cover their shorts, and not indicative of a broad positive movement.

[SkaredShtles]

This whole tinkering around bull$hit is going to end badly. :disgust1:

[$tinkle]

bears sterns down 44%

no, that's not a pinkbike number

[Echo]

bears sterns down 44%

no, that's not a pinkbike number
I was trying to come up with a "drop to flat" joke. But unfortunately it seems like there is a nice steep downhill transition.

[N8]

bears sterns down 44%

no, that's not a pinkbike number

bye or buy??


:D

dammit... time to BUY!!!!

stuff is cheap... looking for an uptick Mon.. Tues at the latest..

[3D.]

A): abolish the fed and resign immediately lol:clapping:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6046520409389956642&hl=en

[SPINTECK]

That's why I get pissed at american sheeple. Many think if the market is up, that's good. The market is only up because the dollar is falling. If you work in science/business, you should realize values are relative to units. If the market falls, sometimes that's good because you buy more stocks with your dollar!!!! People need to think and trade outside the dollar! This same sh1t happened during Reagan- should have been no suprise to older people.

Remember, the US does not own THE FED- the swiss and world super rich do!

[BurlyShirley]

I have an economics noob question:


Suppose things keep swirling around the hole in the toilet for a bit, and the baby boomers get nervous and begin to withdraw their retirement funds from these big firms for fear of losing what hasnt already been lost. Are we looking at a black tuesday scenario?

Also, what happens in 5-15 years when these people retire anyway, and begin to use this money to live on? Sure it will go back into businesses in the economy, but who will prop up these huge firms then?

[SPINTECK]

I have an economics noob question:


Suppose things keep swirling around the hole in the toilet for a bit, and the baby boomers get nervous and begin to withdraw their retirement funds from these big firms for fear of losing what hasnt already been lost. Are we looking at a black tuesday scenario?

Also, what happens in 5-15 years when these people retire anyway, and begin to use this money to live on? Sure it will go back into businesses in the economy, but who will prop up these huge firms then?

You're assuming baby boomers own a large percent of stocks. 90% of stocks are owned by the top 15% (some claim 6-10%) of the world's super rich. The whole middle class investment power is a joke. Just try switching out of your 401K funds every other day- most don't allow it.

If people really want to change the economy, they would watch how they spend their money and not support big international banks (credit cards) and companies (walmart, nike, coke, Gap and on and on.....- of course it's just too damn convenient to use those companies and you save 10-50% in the short term SOMETIMES.)

[$tinkle]

I have an economics noob question:


Suppose things keep swirling around the hole in the toilet for a bit, and the baby boomers get nervous and begin to withdraw their retirement funds from these big firms for fear of losing what hasnt already been lost. Are we looking at a black tuesday scenario?a run on the bank is both unlikely to happen, and ineffective if it did. there's a lot more fingers in the pie than 25 million baby boomers with an average of $30k in their retirement nestegg (not to include home equity, which, too is paltry). besides, we young 'uns are hoping this schyte will scare them to death (http://www.theonion.com/content/node/29261)
Also, what happens in 5-15 years when these people retire anyway, and begin to use this money to live on? Sure it will go back into businesses in the economy, but who will prop up these huge firms then?ron paul.
you don't think he spent all that loot, do you?

[BurlyShirley]

Well then if the investments of the large majority of the public are, at large, fairly nominal in the grand scheme of things, why is consumer spending so influential? What if people inevested the way they frivolously spent? Would it still be such a miniscule amount?

[$tinkle]

Well then if the investments of the large majority of the public are, at large, fairly nominal in the grand scheme of things, why is consumer spending so influential? my take on it is when you have assloads of money, you must put it somewhere, and neither speculative markets nor the mattress make much sense. and for the same reasons they don't make sense, you want it somewhere that's going to at least eek out an edge on inflation.

enter consumer goods, and those companies who offer them.
What if people inevested the way they frivolously spent? Would it still be such a miniscule amount?now you're talking culture change, which is a big "what if?". apart from people realizing that SS is effectively insolvent, i don't know what it would take to make that huge shift - maybe if NAS came out with a peer-reviewed article stating our avg life expectancy is 190 yrs?

[BurlyShirley]

Is the idea I should take from this, that there is, by and large, nothing that the everyday American can do to contribute positively to the economy except spend as much as possible? Maybe, be a little more productive at work. Actually investing money is either ineffectual or a negative (besides negating the need for public assistance in old age) in broader terms?

[SPINTECK]

Well then if the investments of the large majority of the public are, at large, fairly nominal in the grand scheme of things, why is consumer spending so influential? What if people inevested the way they frivolously spent? Would it still be such a miniscule amount?

1/3rd of spending by gov't
1/3rd spending by consumers
1/3rd spending by??? not positive- companies and other countries??

It's hard to save with a family, especially when your dollar buys less as costs increase. In my cynical view, it's all very easy to engineer by the politicians and companies in bed together.

example:
1. cause a conflict (beirut, libya, iraq), increases price of lumber, oil (oil increases price of transportation for all goods)
2. combine with 1 or by itself, borrow money so more of your taxes goes to paying interest and deflating your monetary unit. Also increasing the number of dollars lowers it's value because you've increased supply.
3. Create laws that prevent transparency of corporate profits, payouts and taxes.
4. Take an advanced international economic class because I'm just an old biologist.

[SPINTECK]

Why don't schools just offer a class on banking, budgeting and personal finance-- oh, then there wouldn't be as many sheeple spending money on what the TV tells them is good for them (even if it's bad for them and made by workers that will take away their jobs)

[$tinkle]

burly, you're axing questions to (among others) someone who has lost almost $20k in the last 2 days, and still doesn't give a ****.

bet the other way.

[BurlyShirley]

Why don't schools just offer a class on banking, budgeting and personal finance-- oh, then there wouldn't be as many sheeple spending money on what the TV tells them is good for them (even if it's bad for them and made by workers that will take away their jobs)

I think most schools do offer these things.

[SPINTECK]

Here's a question, then I'll shut-up.

Do you think Politicians are engineering the economy and jobs to be at their worst so the next president can say 3 years later:
"The economy has rebounded and jobs are plentiful thanks to my programs"
??>?

[SPINTECK]

I think most schools do offer these things.

That's a good thing b/c my suburban public school didn't and my wife's uppidy catholic school didn't - well, maybe as electives, but not for core college prep/honors courses.

[LordOpie]

Why don't schools just offer a class on banking, budgeting and personal finance...
Agreed.

Intelligent design should not be taught anywhere but an elective theology class. Evolution should be saved for college.

Grades 1-12 should be used to build the brain and teach fundamental life skills. People who got into mortgage trouble from ignorance would be better served taking such a class instead of world history.

Re-prioritize!

[N8]

Here's a question, then I'll shut-up.

Do you think Politicians are engineering the economy and jobs to be at their worst so the next president can say 3 years later:
"The economy has rebounded and jobs are plentiful thanks to my programs"
??>?

doubt it.

there is far too much money in the market for that and the President isnt that importaint...

however, i have no doubt there are market manipulations by the money men to make more money.

[N8]

burly, you're axing questions to (among others) someone who has lost almost $20k in the last 2 days, and still doesn't give a ****.

bet the other way.

i actually managed not to lose anything this week even finished up about 0.9%...

Monday will be a good day to scarf up some deals and make some coin next week. I am usually go long but in this market short is where it's at... get in and get out... wait then get in again.. takes a lot of work tho.

[BurlyShirley]

Agreed.

Intelligent design should not be taught anywhere but an elective theology class. Evolution should be saved for college.

Grades 1-12 should be used to build the brain and teach fundamental life skills. People who got into mortgage trouble from ignorance would be better served taking such a class instead of world history.

Re-prioritize!

Do you think "education" really makes a difference? People max out their credit cards, not because they aren't educated enough to know that it's a poor financial decision, but because they're impulsively materialistic and without foresight. Same goes with borrowing for a home. People just want the ****ing house. It's a values/integrity issue more than one of education, IMO.

[3D.]

People max out their credit cards, not because they aren't educated enough to know that it's a poor financial decision, but because they're impulsively materialistic and without foresight.

or rely on them entirely too much for the construction of a house, like I did...:disgust1:

[N8]

ronpaul says...

Pt 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M3fhtvQVKY

Pt2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i1dq0ieP-w

[3D.]

i actually managed not to lose anything this week even finished up about 0.9%...

Monday will be a good day to scarf up some deals and make some coin next week. I am usually go long but in this market short is where it's at... get in and get out... wait then get in again.. takes a lot of work tho.

like I mentioned before when you where talking about pulling out... if I had it, I'd put it in the bullion... fvck the nyse, it's failed
http://www.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUSN1439998920080314

[BurlyShirley]

While "we" have some CC debt, it is the student loans that are scary. I have heard rumblings that a "student loan crisis" is on the horizon to mimic the housing one.

[3D.]

While "we" have some CC debt, it is the student loans that are scary. I have heard rumblings that a "student loan crisis" is on the horizon to mimic the housing one.

my brother has been fearing a similar scenario, he's sitting on about 35k from his ucsd loans... if the rates on it rise, he says it will be very difficult to make the payments. there not supposed to rise, but nowadays, who can tell

[$tinkle]

While "we" have some CC debt, it is the student loans that are scary. I have heard rumblings that a "student loan crisis" is on the horizon to mimic the housing one.f'ing affirmative action.

that's right, i said it.

[BurlyShirley]

my brother has been fearing a similar scenario, he's sitting on about 35k from his ucsd loans... if the rates on it rise, he says it will be very difficult to make the payments. there not supposed to rise, but nowadays, who can tell

Another area where I don't fully understand things: How is it that raising rates to a level that a great number of people will inevitably default is a reasonable action?

[LordOpie]

Another area where I don't fully understand things: How is it that raising rates to a level that a great number of people will inevitably default is a reasonable action?

Student loans are exempt from bankruptcy. You have to pay them back eventually, while interest still grows.

[ire]

Student loans are exempt from bankruptcy. You have to pay them back eventually, while interest still grows.

Yup, they are one of the debts that you really can't get rid of (unless you die). With regards to rates, I believe (I could be wrong) that loans issued before Congress passed the revamp for student loans can have their rates increased after you leave school (assuming you don't consolidate).

[N8]

i thought most gov studen programs were canceled now anyway.. no?

[Toshi]

when i consolidated my student loans a year or two back it was at a fixed rate iirc. 4.375% fixed for the consolidated portion, 6 and change% for the unconsolidated bit. $111k total as of today, ugh.

[N8]

Barton Biggs Expects 1,000-Point Gain in Dow Average (Update2)
By Brian Sullivan and Michael Patterson

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- The decline in U.S. stocks is ``way overdone'' and the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rally 1,000 points, investor Barton Biggs said.

``We're in a financial panic,'' Biggs said during a telephone interview with Bloomberg Television from New York. ``We're setting up for a really big rally. I don't mean three or four hundred points on the Dow, I mean 1,000 points on the Dow. I don't know if we're going to get it next week or the week after. But this thing has gotten crazy and is overdone.''

Biggs, a former Morgan Stanley strategist who now runs the $1.5 billion hedge fund Traxis Partners LLC, said stock markets from Germany to Hong Kong may bottom out soon after tumbling this year. Biggs's prediction in March 2007 that U.S. stocks were near a low preceded a 16 percent rally in the Dow average during the next four months. His forecast that the Dow would climb as much as 19 percent in 2007 overshot its actual gain by almost 13 percentage points.

``We're at a really crucial point,'' Biggs said. ``This is a time to be buying stocks around the world and not to be selling them.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3srM5UWs8NQ&refer=home

[N8]

Is the dollar is set to rally big time???

Late last week, we heard a lot of comments from various people including Pres Bush. The one thing they kept saying was, "I'm supportive of a strong dollar".

Some folks are speculating that a concerted effort by the various CBs to strengthen the dollar is about to happen. They can try to rally the dollar by buying it or cutting interest rates.... if that is true, it's good time to stay out of the international markets...

[N8]

i beat a retreat to gov securities and bond funds at the end of Thus.. but i think i am going all in on the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 funds for Mon...


should be a wild ride next week...

[N8]

bears sterns down 44%

no, that's not a pinkbike number


down 47% now.. pretty much has no where to go now but up.

Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC - News) plunged more than 47% after needing to be bailed out by JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News), with a little help from the Fed. BSC was experiencing such difficulty that it couldn't wait to borrow from the Fed on March 27, instead having to turn to JPMorgan Chase, who borrowed from the Fed. JPM's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

[N8]

S&P opens, drops 1.74% in the first two minutes of trading. Now at 1264.

[dante]

$2/share for Bear is 1/2 of what their building alone in NYC is worth. What's worse, is that 30% of Bear is owned by the employees... when will people learn NOT to keep a vast majority of their savings/401k money in one company, especially that they're employed by??? Did they not learn from the whole ENRON debacle?? :banghead:

[N8]

The dollar is up and it looks like it's holding the market up... at the moment at least

[N8]

$2/share for Bear is 1/2 of what their building alone in NYC is worth. What's worse, is that 30% of Bear is owned by the employees... when will people learn NOT to keep a vast majority of their savings/401k money in one company, especially that they're employed by??? Did they not learn from the whole ENRON debacle?? :banghead:

OUCH!!! :twitch:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3558485.ece

JOE LEWIS, the secretive British billionaire, has lost an estimated $800m in the collapse of the American investment bank Bear Stearns.

The 71-year-old currency trading tycoon, who runs his empire from the Bahamas, holds almost 10% of the bank's shares. Bear’s shares fell 40% on Friday to $27, after it secured a 28-day credit lifeline to stave off collapse.

[$tinkle]

but still a billionaire.
:notears:

[N8]

but still a billionaire.
:notears:

has your wild ride already begun this morn $tink?

wherez teh moniez?

[$tinkle]

my biggest holding (HP) is actually up 2 pts from teh open. mcDeez & lifecell haven't recovered (yet).

every time i get ready to pounce on sbux for a fire-sale, they dip even lower. they're prime to be bought, but by whom? P&G?

[N8]

my biggest holding (HP) is actually up 2 pts from teh open. mcDeez & lifecell haven't recovered (yet).

every time i get ready to pounce on sbux for a fire-sale, they dip even lower. they're prime to be bought, but by whom? P&G?



I thought sbux was gonna be a good buy at $25.. buy as you say... just gets cheaper and cheaper..

Is the basement sub $10? Could be the next Apple..

[N8]

Below is a list of primary dealers who will be able to borrow directly from the Fed's new program announced Sunday:

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Countrywide Securities Corporation
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Lehman Brothers Inc. (http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/03/17/afx4780147.html)
Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC.

[$tinkle]

i'm usually long, but i'm going to lock in expected gains toward the end of the trading day tomorrow & pay off the car.

this is thparta

[SkaredShtles]

Below is a list of primary dealers who will be able to borrow directly from the Fed's new program announced Sunday:

BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Countrywide Securities Corporation
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Securities LLC.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Lehman Brothers Inc. (http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/03/17/afx4780147.html)
Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC.

I can't believe SkaredSh1tless Enterprises isn't on the list. :disgust1:

[dante]

Oh, this can't be good...

ARM rates skyrocket (http://www.lvrj.com/real_estate/16703006.html)

ARM rates at WF last week (might've been the week before) were 5.1%. This week they're at 6.875%! Wonder what this'll do to the default rates...

[$tinkle]

"flashback" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/23575614) (4 trading days ago)
Dear Jim: Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there? --Peter

Cramer says: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear.”i've only taken mental notes on his predictions a couple times, and while he may be smart & successful, he's never correct on sure things.

wonder if he's out of a job today? probably not; he was half right.

[N8]

Bear Stearns - DOWN 84.06%
National City - DOWN 42.85%
CIT Group -.......DOWN 27.56%
Lehman Bros - DOWN 20.28%

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/magazines/fortune/investing/Tully_WallStIsBroken.fortune/index.htm

Today, the magic is fading fast. It's time to step back and analyze how financial firms actually operate.

The truth is that they've been relying on a highly-flawed business model for years. Put simply, Wall Street firms used towering leverage to make tons of money in a long-running bull market that blatantly underpriced risk. At the same time, they handed a huge chunk of the gains to employees in the form of excessive pay.

[N8]

"flashback" (http://www.cnbc.com/id/23575614) (4 trading days ago)i've only taken mental notes on his predictions a couple times, and while he may be smart & successful, he's never correct on sure things.

wonder if he's out of a job today? probably not; he was half right.

how can that a$$hat not be in jail now..???

[$tinkle]

do you realize thursday close for BSC was 57.22, and today it's 4.81?

that's a full order of magnitude in 2 trading days.

[ohio]

do you realize thursday close for BSC was 57.22, and today it's 4.81?

that's a full order of magnitude in 2 trading days.

And from 150 a year ago.

Imagine your a 50-something manager at BSC with all your savings/retirement dutifully tied up in BSC stock and options. Your $15M nest egg just dropped to $500k (which is better than the $200k it was worth when JPM bought you yesterday).

[dante]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/magazines/fortune/investing/Tully_WallStIsBroken.fortune/index.htm

Thanks for that insightful and timely report on the dangers of the financial markets, CNN... It's not like this information would've been useful a week ago. </sarcasm>

[$tinkle]

watched some (15 min) madmoney today.
i think jim's producers let him know beforehand: "you will eat chit before a live audience"

catch the re-air if you can.

[N8]

watched some (15 min) madmoney today.
i think jim's producers let him know beforehand: "you will eat chit before a live audience"

catch the re-air if you can.

lol..uhh... :dead:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBL-090RS2o

[dante]

uhhhhh, people do realize the difference between investing *with* Bear Sterns (ie, you have an account at bear.com), and investing *in* Bear Sterns (buying BSC, Bear's common stock). If you invest *with* Bear Sterns, your money is fine. If you invested *in* Bear Sterns, you're f**ked. To be perfectly honest, I have no idea which the caller was referring to when he talked about taking his money out of Bear Sterns, but the piling on is just a bit over the top. Makes me think foxnews viewers happened to be watching Cramer for some reason... :D

[$tinkle]

from my nyc connection re: cramer: "He's a jackass. And a crook. Did you know that he is good friends with Eliot Spitzer? Spitzer used to be an investor in Cramer's hedge fund."lol..uhh... :dead:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBL-090RS2o"This video has been removed by the user."

that was quick. what was it?

[N8]

from my nyc connection re: cramer: "He's a jackass. And a crook. Did you know that he is good friends with Eliot Spitzer? Spitzer used to be an investor in Cramer's hedge fund.""This video has been removed by the user."

that was quick. what was it?

damn!!! sure was!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFwN6Cde0_c&feature=related

[N8]

Try this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyGc_rlF8aA

[Changleen]

It seems to me that 'in a nutshell' the fed and other factors are placing massive pressure on the dollar to continue devaluing against other currencies, and that for America, and in the medium term, people like you N_8, this is bad.

[3D.]

It seems to me that 'in a nutshell' the fed and other factors are placing massive pressure on the dollar to continue devaluing against other currencies, and that for America, and in the medium term, people like you N_8, this is bad.

apparent to anyone who's taken the time to remove head from portfolio <snip-ping> and ass <> can easily ascertain that the only way the dollar is going to “get along” with all the other little currencies on the school yard is to ______----------->^^^^^^^^^~~~~~~~_____:plthumbsdown:

http://i130.photobucket.com/albums/p256/shiftshaft1/dollarcrash.jpg

[dante]

https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/christy/bankshot-brackets.jpg

[3D.]

^^ :clapping:

[dante]

latest news, Bernanke/Fed stand up to wall st and *only* offer a 75bp cut. market howls in anger and drops by 100pts.

[$tinkle]

frikkin crybabies.

so much for my limit order.

p.s. kinda fun watching the ticker lose 10 pts every minute. it'll stop being fun soon.

[X3pilot]

Just so I'm straight on all this:

Basically the Fed and others are punishing those that have gone the traditonal way of paying bills on time and saving money by making it more lucrative to get credit and devalue my dollars in savings and propping up and supporting the lazy assed idiots who just live on Visa and Mastercard and just buy until they can't pay and then declare bankruptcy and get absolved of all debts to start the cycle over.

White collar welfare, perhaps?

Any rules on moving to Canada?

[valve bouncer]

Dear US$,
Please die a long lingering death and take that cunting pound sterling with you, as well as that bastard Australian $. Please remain dead until my next round of travelling is complete.
Regards VB
P.S- loving your work so far this year.

[SkaredShtles]

Dear US$,
Please die a long lingering death and take that cunting pound sterling with you, as well as that bastard Australian $. Please remain dead until my next round of travelling is complete.
Regards VB
P.S- loving your work so far this year.
Good call. :D

[valve bouncer]

Good call. :D
Dunno what you're grinning about, sucks for you blokes if you're planning to travel. Europe is basically an anal fisting for you lot at the moment. Actually Europe is bum rape for anybody not earning Euros.:disgust1:

For the first time since I've lived in Japan (11+years) the yen is at less than 100 to the dollar, so all the Yank expats here sending coin home are cheering, the Poms too as the pound is worth less than 200 yen for the first time in 10 years. Meanwhile the Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians are all crying as their dollars are at all time highs.
I don't send money home so I'm OK, plus I'm going to London in August and all the pointy-heads have the yen gaining strength until at least mid-year. Go you heathen bastard currency.

[SkaredShtles]

Dunno what you're grinning about, sucks for you blokes if you're planning to travel. Europe is basically an anal fisting for you lot at the moment. Actually Europe is bum rape for anybody not earning Euros.:disgust1:
You're just getting your due. Wife and I traveled back in Europe back in '99. Everything was cheap. Hell, we even bought the wife's diamond ring in Antwerp while we were there. All our traveling is domestic for the foreseeable future, anyways...

Live it up, mate!

[valve bouncer]

You're just getting your due. Wife and I traveled back in Europe back in '99. Everything was cheap. Hell, we even bought the wife's diamond ring in Antwerp while we were there. All our traveling is domestic for the foreseeable future, anyways...

Live it up, mate!
Cheers SS, most of my international travel is to Australia so for most of the time I've been here the A$ has been pretty weak so I've done alright. The last few trips didn't stretch my yen as far as they did before. Didn't help that Australia has basically become twice as expensive in the last 5 years.:disgust1:

I think the domestic route may be the way to go for you blokes for a while, not as if there's a shortage of things to see. The low dollar should help those in the tourist industry as the US will be cheaper than usual. You'll be getting masses of Euros this summer.
http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/070405/bruno_l.jpg
Hopefully the frontline warriors in the WoT will realise giving German grannies the rubber glove treatment is not good for business and will back off a bit with their retarded security.

[SkaredShtles]

<snip>
I think the domestic route may be the way to go for you blokes for a while, not as if there's a shortage of things to see. The low dollar should help those in the tourist industry as the US will be cheaper than usual. You'll be getting masses of Euros this summer.

Hopefully the frontline warriors in the WoT will realise giving German grannies the rubber glove treatment is not good for business and will back off a bit with their retarded security.
I'm starting to think that a nice little pad up in the mountains catering exclusively to furriners might be the way to go for the next few years. :D

[BIGHITR]

$17 bucks a week in gasoline a while back. Now I'm looking at $63 bucks a week. That's a minimum of an extra $2208 a year. I have been spying an Intense for years. I just bought a big hit bike but I opted for the cheaper deal at $1850. I can only speak for myself but gas is just taking what I had left in my pocket to spend and tossing it in the tank. I would have bought an Intense but had to use the cash to live ya know. If I could buy alcohol or natural gas, I'd convert my vehicles to get a buck a gallon prices again. Anyone relate?

[$tinkle]

can't relate to a 24" rear wheel.

[$tinkle]

Bear Stearns - DOWN 84.06%
up 105%

whee!!

[N8]

up 105%

whee!!

JP paying $10/share newz..?

anybody want to take bets that the guys forming the new mortgage company already bought a boatload of BSC at $2 a share - and now JPM is helping them out by upping the ante on the buyback?

[N8]

it's been a great 3 market days...

what does tomorrow bring?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VM9H63a49Y&eurl=http://inthemoneystocks.com/Day_Trading_Archive_and_Vid.html

[N8]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0CMrdl5RLY



Barron's this week attempts to explain the rationale behind the Commodity Boom.

"...commodities in general were fully valued in terms of the fundamentals as of early September 2007. Based on the 24-commodity S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, that would mean about a 30% collapse from present levels. But, he adds, "Given the tendency for prices to overshoot, commodity values could be cut in half before they stabilize."

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BA-AM069_Bubble_20080328222438.gif

[SkaredShtles]

Watch, oil will fall to $50/bbl the Dow will rise 5,000 and we'll call this the shortest "recession" in the history of modern economics. :D

[N8]

Watch, oil will fall to $50/bbl the Dow will rise 5,000 and we'll call this the shortest "recession" in the history of modern economics. :D



Oil slides further

Prices fall to near $101 a barrel amid broad sell-off in commodities.
April 1, 2008: 5:17 AM EDT

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell further Tuesday after sliding more than $4 a barrel in the previous session on concerns about waning crude demand and a general sell-off in commodities.

Speculators have poured money into commodities in recent weeks as a hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar, which neared its all-time low against the euro Monday. But instead of buying on Monday, traders sold off a wide range of commodities, from precious metals and gasoline to pork bellies and soybeans.

"The oil market's sentiment has turned bearish for the time being," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "The trigger event was the collapse of Bear Stearns."
Crude futures started plunging in March after the U.S. Federal Reserve-backed sale of Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC, Fortune 500) to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, Fortune 500) in March created fears of deeper economic problems.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery lost 52 cents to $101.06 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract dropped $4.04 to settle at $101.58 a barrel Monday.

Analysts, though, are split on oil's direction. Many think prices will rise to new records in coming months as the dollar weakens further. Others say such high prices can't be sustained.

"All the latest data out of the U.S. shows demand in the first quarter has actually shrunk versus the same period last year," Shum said. "That's a very strong sign of how much stress the U.S. economy is going through and how that has impacted demand."

Barring any new supply disruptions, Shum said he believes prices will move lower.

Crude prices have also been easing on reports of relative calm in Iraq, where two attacks on oil pipelines in Basra last week raised concerns about a plunge in exports. An official with the country's South Oil Co. said Saturday that operation