What Odds Civil War in Iraq

[fluff]

Of course some might argue that we're already there, if not it seems to be fast approaching now:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4742188.stm

Iraq's leaders are warning publicly about the dangers of a civil war.

"We are facing a major conspiracy that is targeting Iraq's unity," President Jalal Talabani said.

"We should all stand hand in hand to prevent the danger of a civil war."

[Changleen]

Low to medium. It's just a slow news week.

[DaveW]

Civil war no.
Inter Sect warfare between the Shia and Sunni with the other sect's as collateral damage? I'd rate that as far more likely.

[fluff]

Civil war no.
Inter Sect warfare between the Shia and Sunni with the other sect's as collateral damage? I'd rate that as far more likely.

What would qualify as civil war exactly?

[fluff]

Low to medium. It's just a slow news week.
Don't be so sure - this could be part of a serious attempt to really stir things up. If a few more Shia sites were targetted (and some Sunni ones too) things just might escalate beyond the point where they could be stabilised. After all no-one expected Yugoslavia to implode quite as spectacularly as it did.

[Changleen]

You can never be sure, but I don't think this is the worst we've seen. I don't think this will result in a full scale shi'a vs. sunni war. It almost sounds like an excuse for failure. I note it's largely US owned outlets that are pushing this story.

[fluff]

You can never be sure, but I don't think this is the worst we've seen. I don't think this will result in a full scale shi'a vs. sunni war. It almost sounds like an excuse for failure. I note it's largely US owned outlets that are pushing this story.
The BBC are US owned?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4741616.stm


Quote:
The destruction of the al-Askari shrine takes the danger of a civil war in Iraq to a new level.

It has produced bigger protests than the killing of humans did - and it could multiply the danger and the violence.

The reason is that the holy places in the Middle East are very special for the people who consider them sacred, and that applies to all the different religions and sects.

They are a vital part of the way that people see themselves.

An attack on a shrine is a direct assault on the identity and rights of an entire community.

[valve bouncer]

You can never be sure, but I don't think this is the worst we've seen. I don't think this will result in a full scale shi'a vs. sunni war. It almost sounds like an excuse for failure. I note it's largely US owned outlets that are pushing this story.
Dunno Chang, seems to be starring on the BBC as well as NHK and in the Aussie papers.

[DaveW]

The BBC are US owned?



heh well Blair is. ;)

Sorry chang but it is more than just the us media pushing it.

Fluff I'd describe it as a religous war not civil as it would likely spread across multiple countrys quite quickly if it did break out into open warfare.

[Changleen]

Yes I see 130 are now dead as a result of this.

Among the dead were 47 people, apparently both Sunnis and Shi'ites, whom gunmen dragged from vehicles after they attended a demonstration to show cross-sectarian solidarity near Baghdad.That's especially not good...

[DaveW]

Yeah :(

Here's a first hand report on what it's like for bagdad locals.... Riverbend (http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/2006_02_01_riverbendblog_archive.html#114064838240 253479)

and several mosques in Baghdad were attacked. I think what has everyone most disturbed is the fact that the reaction was so swift, like it was just waiting to happen.

[Westy]

Wasn't this a worst case scenario described before the war started. Shiite/Sunni civil war. Iran joins in to support Sunnis. Kurds declare independance causing problems in Kurdish Turkey so Turkey jumps in..........

[DaveW]

Yep, that was the main one many comentators were quietly sh**ting themselves over.

[Westy]

Luckily proper intelligence was used and all scenarios were prepared for so it shouldn't come to pass.

[Changleen]

Yeah :(

Here's a first hand report on what it's like for bagdad locals.... Riverbend (http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/2006_02_01_riverbendblog_archive.html#114064838240 253479)
Did you read Riverbend during the conflict? Was pretty good.

[DaveW]

Yeah her blog is one of the ones I keep an eye on.

[Changleen]

Seems the press in the area are largely trying to damp the situation a little or blame it on the US:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4743206.stm

[MikeD]

Wasn't this a worst case scenario described before the war started. Shiite/Sunni civil war. Iran joins in to support Sunnis. Kurds declare independance causing problems in Kurdish Turkey so Turkey jumps in..........

So what? All we've got then is a minor regional conflict, say like the one between Serbia and Austrio-Hungary in the early 20th century.

Worrywart.

[Tenchiro]

War is always very UNcivil.

[Westy]

So what? All we've got then is a minor regional conflict, say like the one between Serbia and Austrio-Hungary in the early 20th century.

Worrywart.


Those Austrio-Hungarians, what a bunch of firecrackers they were.

[MikeD]

Those Austrio-Hungarians, what a bunch of firecrackers they were.

Isn't that band, umm, "Frank Ferdinand" or something, from around there?

[fluff]

Isn't that band, umm, "Frank Ferdinand" or something, from around there?
The Arch-Duck ?

[MikeD]

The Arch-Duck ?

Oh, him. He was married to the duckess, right?

Shot by a shotgun in the face during a bird hunt or something?

[fluff]

Oh, him. He was married to the duckess, right?

Shot by a shotgun in the face during a bird hunt or something?
By the voice-precedent, iirc.

[MikeD]

Wow, this has gotten wierd. I knew I shouldn't have watched that Monty Python special last night.

Back to your regularly-scheduled civil war?

Nice to see the local 'leadership' capitalizing on the tragedy, though..."the US wants this! They want to stay here and continue to be shot at!" Seriously, we'd rather have a nice, docile regime in place, the oil pumping, and new markets opening up for consumer products. Why doesn't anyone get that and get with the program? Sheesh.

MD

[kinghami3]

You can never be sure, but I don't think this is the worst we've seen. I don't think this will result in a full scale shi'a vs. sunni war. It almost sounds like an excuse for failure. I note it's largely US owned outlets that are pushing this story.
The Shiite shrine that was destroyed was one of the top 3 Muslim shrines, connected to three of the early Imams, including the 12th Imam. I guarantee that the situation will escalate very rapidly from this point. The country is divided, and the sects are divided more than ever. If this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4742188.stm) isn't important, than I don't know what is. A war between Shiites and Sunnis would constitute a civil war, and I believe there is a very good chance that that is where this is headed.

[valve bouncer]

Oh, him. He was married to the duckess, right?

Shot by a shotgun in the face during a bird hunt or something?
Learn ya history son, he was shot by a Serbian antichrist.

[DaveW]

Learn ya history son, he was shot by a Serbian antichrist.


Not an Anarchist?

Damm i musta got a faulty text book at school...... I want a refund!:mumble:

[valve bouncer]

Not an Anarchist?

Damm i musta got a faulty text book at school...... I want a refund!:mumble:
WTF...next you'll be telling me he wasn't from Australia either.

[kinghami3]

WTF...next you'll be telling me he wasn't from Australia either.
LOL! good call...:rofl:

[MikeD]

Australia-hungry, to be precise. All he wanted was another shrimp on the barbie.